The Bond God’s $4,000 Gold Call (and a “Dividend Twofer” to Profit)

Brett Owens, Chief Investment Strategist
Updated: September 23, 2025

When DoubleLine CIO Jeffrey Gundlach speaks, we yield hounds listen.

Right now, the “Bond God” has gold on the brain. We’re dialed in, because his latest utterances are pointing the way to a sweet 7.4%-paying “gold-dividend twofer” for us.

I’m talking about a play for price upside in the near term, followed by big monthly dividends (yes, 7.4%, and maybe more) when the “discount trigger” we’ll talk about in a sec kicks in.

The Bond God Calls ’Em Like He Sees ’Em

The Bond God is a dyed-in-the-wool contrarian who holds a special place in our hearts because, well, he’s often right. The 2008/2009 crisis? He called it. Trump’s 2016 win? He called that, too, as well as the 2022 panic.

So we were eager to hear what Gundlach had to say following the Fed’s decision to cut rates by a quarter-point last week. And, as usual, he didn’t disappoint.

“I think almost certainly gold will close above $4,000 by the end of this year,” he said. (That’s not new—he’s been saying it since March.) Gold trades around $3,675 an ounce as I write this, down a bit from pre-rate-cut levels.

And then there was this, er, nugget, about the Fed’s rate cut, with more likely to follow: “I think there’s a risk of over-easing.”

Bessent Takes on the 10-Year—And Gold Is Loving It

The Bond God no doubt sees what we see: Recent (and likely future) moves by the administration and the Fed are likely to keep inflation worries—and with them gold’s winning streak—alive.

Let’s start with the administration, specifically Scott Bessent’s Treasury Department, which is doing something unusual: issuing 80% of the government’s debt on the short end of the yield curve.

By doing so, he’s decreasing supply of long-term Treasuries, boosting demand. That puts downward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, benchmark for consumer and business loans.

Uncle Sam wins, too, because the short end of the curve, set by the Fed, is usually lower than the long end. It also explains the pressure the administration is heaping on Powell: Lower short rates will save the government billions! Powell, for his part, is obliging, with two more quarter-point rate cuts expected by year-end.

Where does that leave us? With short-term rates falling and long-term rates capped—and potentially moving lower.

You don’t have to look far to see how falling Treasury rates ignite gold. It’s exactly what’s happened so far this year, with the gold-price benchmark SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), in purple, soaring as the yield on the 10-year (in orange) drops:

The Gold/10-Year Teeter Totter

This is likely what’s behind Gundlach’s thinking: As the Fed and Treasury bring rates lower—and keep inflation worries alive—gold will keep arcing higher.

Let’s, er, dig (sorry, couldn’t resist!) into those two gold plays I mentioned earlier, especially after the yellow metal pulled back a bit after last Wednesday’s rate cut.

“Gold-Dividend Twofer” Step 1: Put This 7.4% Dividend on Your Watch List
The 7.4%-paying GAMCO Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust (GGN) is a smart way to tap gold for big (and monthly paid) dividends.

GGN holds mining stocks, including gold miners Alamos Gold (AGI), Kinross Gold (KGC) and UK-headquartered Endeavour Mining plc (EDVMF). It then sells covered-call options on its portfolio to generate that 7.4% income stream.

Using covered calls, GGN agrees to sell its stocks to a buyer at a future date and at a fixed price. In return, the buyer pays the fund a fee—or “premium,” which GGN keeps no matter how these trades play out.

It’s a great way to generate income, and it works particularly well with volatile stocks, like gold miners.

GGN cut its dividend mid-2020 and hasn’t raised it since. But recent portfolio gains could change that, as the fund’s total return NAV (or the return on its portfolio) has popped this year. That could prompt management to hand over a slice of these gains as a higher payout:

GGN’s Portfolio Soars. Payout Hike Next? 

We know GGN well at my Dividend Swing Trader service. We hopped aboard this high-yielding gold fund back in May and, just over five months later, are sitting on a nice 23% total return as I write this.

We also like the fact that GGN goes beyond gold, as it also holds names like Freeport McMoRan (FCX), which focuses on copper, among its top-10 holdings. Energy stocks, like Chevron (CVX) and No. 1 holding Exxon Mobil (XOM), make an appearance, too. These additional resource stocks provide an added hedge against inflation.

The fund now trades at a 1% premium to NAV, so we’re waiting for the next dip buy on this one. Same goes for another high-yielding gold fund we’ve traded for short-term gains in the past. It’s already soared even higher than GGN—a 56% gain, to be exact—in about the same timeframe.

You’ll want to make sure you own GGN and this other 56% gainer before gold’s next bounce. The timing isn’t quite right yet, but we’re getting close. I’ll tell you exactly when to make your move in Dividend Swing Trader.

Which brings me to …

“Gold-Dividend Twofer” Step 2: Look to NEM for Growth

Now let’s move from a CEF to Newmont Corp. (NEM), the world’s biggest gold miner. It’s benefiting from a sweet combo of cheap energy and high gold that I see continuing. As I write this, the WTI crude price is around $64. That’s up a bit since oil hit the skids in the April “tariff tantrum,” but it’s still historically low.

Energy is a major cost for any miner. And with the administration’s energy policy being, quite literally, “Drill, baby, drill,” lower oil looks set to stick around.

At the same time, the selling price of NEM’s main output, gold, is around that $3,700 level mentioned earlier, potentially heading to $4,000 if our man Gundlach’s latest call is right (and there’s every reason to believe it is, given his track record).

I think you’ll agree that this is a very good setup for a gold miner. No wonder Newmont’s revenue soared 21% year over year in Q2, and EPS came within a penny of doubling, to $1.43 from $0.72.

Yet shares trade at 14-times forward earnings, below the five-year average of 18. Management’s busy buying that deal, announcing $3 billion in buybacks at the end of July.

NEM yields 1.3% and pays a base plus variable dividend, so payouts rise when gold does well. But the dividend is just 21% of NEM’s last 12 months of free cash flow, so it’s safe.

The Takeaway: Start With NEM, Add GGN When Its Discount Returns

The bottom line? NEM is worth a look now, especially with its moderate P/E and buybacks. Then, when the time is right for GGN, we’ll pounce and add that fund (and its rich dividend stream), too.

2 top UK dividend stocks offering effortless passive income

Ben McPoland highlights a pair of stocks from the FTSE 250 index that have tremendous track records of dividend growth.

Posted by Ben McPoland

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services.

One great thing about investing for passive income is that it can become very low maintenance. Once the initial research is done and the dividend stocks are tucked away in a portfolio, the only real upkeep is reading the company reports a couple of times a year.

Here, I’ll spotlight two dividend-paying investment trusts that I think are worth checking out for income.

136 years old

Established in 1889, Merchants Trust (LSE:MRCH) is one of the UK’s oldest investment trusts. It’s listed in the FTSE 250 and aims to provide above-average income growth, as well as long-term capital appreciation.

Merchants holds 53 dividend stocks, including FTSE 100 staples such as GSK, Lloyds, Shell and BP. However, it isn’t afraid to bank profits and take positions in lesser-known companies.

For example, it recently trimmed strong performers including British American Tobacco, Barclays and Burberry. With the proceeds, Merchants started a new position in MONY Group, the company behind websites such as MoneySuperMarket and MoneySavingExpert.

Portfolio manager Simon Gergel says MONY “is attractive, given potential future growth and efficiency opportunities. This is backed by a strong balance sheet, healthy cash generation and a 6% dividend yield.”

The fact that Merchants’ portfolio is full of UK stocks adds some risk, because the economy is currently in a fragile state. Some of the holdings might struggle in this tough environment, resulting in weaker earnings and dividend growth.

The flip side to this, of course, is that tons of UK shares are cheap. And this inevitably creates opportunities, as Gergel points out: “We are finding numerous cheap UK companies to invest in, especially among the medium-sized businesses. These have been largely shunned by investors and many are offering compelling value, even allowing for subdued domestic growth in the short term“.

In this spirit, Merchants recently added three building-related companies: building products supplier Marshalls, housebuilder Barratt Redrow and building materials distributor Grafton.

The stock sports a decent 5.4% dividend yield. And it’s currently trading at an 8.2% discount to net asset value (NAV), suggesting there’s solid value here.

Of course, no dividend is guaranteed. But I find it encouraging that Merchants has increased its annual pay out for 43 consecutive years.

Infrastructure

3i Infrastructure (LSE:3IN) is also in the FTSE 250, but has stakes in unlisted infrastructure companies across the UK and Europe. These range from offshore wind vessels and fibre communications networks to biogas plants.

One immediate risk here is that these are illiquid, private infrastructure assets. In other words, they can’t be easily offloaded if something goes wrong, and the portfolio’s quite concentrated (just 11 companies).

However, infrastructure assets tend to generate stable cash flows, and last year the dividend increased 6.3% to 12.65p per share. For this year (FY26, which ends in March), the payout’s expected to rise another 6.3% to 13.45p. Then goes up to 14.2p next year.

This put the forward dividend yield at a respectable 4%.

3i Infrastructure has a strong track record of successful investment exits. Since going public in 2007, it has generated a 14% annualised NAV total return.

The trust’s excellently managed by the FTSE 100’s 3i Group, which has a 29% stake. And it’s currently trading at an 8.6% discount to NAV, suggesting value is also on offer.

Financial performance and dividends

NAV total return was broadly flat over the six-month period (-0.2%). The positive contribution from macroeconomic updates, including revised UK inflation forecasts, a reduction in Finnish corporate tax, and FX tailwinds, combined with dividends and share buybacks, were offset by an increase in discount rates and weaker power price forecasts. Revenues remain well protected, with 85% fixed over the next two years, helping to mitigate much of the power price volatility. Development-stage asset valuations also saw a modest net decline, primarily due to headwinds in the floating offshore wind sector affecting Simply Blue. Further details on the NAV per share movements can be found in the interim report.

We continued to deliver against our progressive dividend policy, paying 3.08p per Ordinary Share over the first half, in line with the full-year 2025 target of 6.17p per share. This target, increased by 2.5% from FY 2024 in line with UK CPI, marks the fourth consecutive year of inflation-linked increases and is expected to be fully covered by operating cash flows. Total dividend payments amounted to £16.8 million during H1 2025.

ORIT continues to offer shareholders an attractive income profile. Based on the FY 2025 dividend target of 6.17p, and the share price of 73.4p as at 30 June 2025, the implied dividend yield is 8.4%. This supported a total shareholder return of 12.9% over the first half of this financial year, reflecting both income and share price appreciation. While the share price has since retraced to 66.0p as at 15 September, the implied yield has correspondingly increased to 9.3%, reinforcing the strength of ORIT’s income proposition in volatile markets.

Launch of ‘ORIT 2030’ – A strategic roadmap for growth

Existing capital allocation commitments remain in place for 2025

Core focus on NAV growth through investment into construction and developer assets

A clear plan to create further impact through adding new renewable capacity

Proposing a continuation vote every three years

Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust plc, the diversified renewables infrastructure company, today announces the launch of ORIT 2030, a defined five-year strategy designed to deliver substantial net-asset-value (“NAV”) growth, scale the company to £1 billion and generate attractive medium-to-long-term shareholder returns. The Board is also recommending that the Company’s continuation vote moves to every three years, from the current five-year cycle.

The three core goals of the 2025 Capital Allocation Update in March remain unchanged for this financial year.

2025 Capital Allocation Objectives and Update

1.    An extended share buyback programme totalling £30 million

·    £21.6 million shares repurchased to 15 September 2025

·    Balance to be retained to make further purchases as required

2.    A commitment to reduce debt to under 40% of Gross Asset Value (“GAV”)

·    47% at 15 September 2025; asset sales anticipated to bring this figure down

·    On track to reduce debt to below 40% of GAV by year end

3.    A pledge to sell at least £80 million of assets to pay down debt and make a small number of selective investments where they are deemed to be accretive

·    Several sales processes advanced; on track to realise the £80m target by year end

·    Selective investments made into developers Nordic Generation, BLC Energy, and conditional acquisition of Irishtown

Thereafter the Board and Octopus Energy Generation (the “Investment Manager”) will execute ORIT 2030, which is focused on the four strategic priorities set out below:

1.    Grow: Invest for NAV growth

·    Deploy capital into higher returning investments

o  Increase target portfolio allocation to ~20% in construction assets

o  Maintain 5% allocation to developer assets

·    Accelerate NAV growth through a repeatable process of recycling, investment, improving operational performance and enhancing the value of assets

2.    Scale: Build a larger, more investable company

·    Target £1 billion net asset value by 2030, to create a more liquid and investable company

·    Achieved through disciplined capital deployment and organic NAV growth, alongside potential value-accretive corporate M&A

·    Share buybacks as a tool subject to market conditions and capital allocation priorities

3.    Return: Deliver attractive risk-adjusted total returns

·    Target medium-to-long-term total returns of 9-11% through a combination of capital growth and income

·    Maintain existing progressive dividend policy, while preserving full cover

·    Prudent balance sheet management, with leverage anchored at <40% GAV with the flexibility to move temporarily above this for value-accretive opportunities and strategic recycling

·    Retain diversification across core technologies and geographies

4.    Impact: Scale with purpose and resilience

·    Aim to build approximately 100 MW of new renewable capacity per annum

·    Sustain ORIT’s mandate, enabling new clean energy generation and supporting the energy transition

Continuation Vote

In addition to the above, the Board is recommending that the continuation vote moves to a cycle of every three years, from the current five. A resolution to this effect will be put to shareholders at the 2026 AGM and, if approved, the next continuation vote will take place at the Company’s 2028 AGM. The change is intended to give shareholders more frequent opportunities to assess the future of the Company, while reinforcing ORIT’s commitment to accountability and alignment with investor interests.

Phil Austin, Chair of Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust plc, commented: “ORIT 2030 marks the next phase in the Company’s development. This clear five-year strategy aims to scale ORIT significantly, drive NAV growth through investment into construction and development assets and – underpinned by resilient cash flows – maintain progressive fully-covered dividends.

“More than 90% of shareholders backed the Company at its continuation vote in June, indicating strong support for ORIT’s future, yet it has also been made clear from our active dialogue with investors that they want the Company to become larger, more investable and to stay true to its purpose. ORIT 2030 addresses this directly with a plan that balances yield, growth and impact, ensuring the Company delivers for shareholders, while supporting the energy transition.

“With disciplined capital management and the expertise of our Investment Manager, we believe we are well placed to execute ORIT 2030 and to pursue our ambition of building a £1 billion renewables vehicle by 2030.”

The Snowball has sold the shares in QYLP for a tiny profit of £42.00 after all charges.

BSIF is the replacement share 6214 shares at a cost of 4k.

A further purchase will be made in NESF for 1k.

If 2026 Is 2008 Redux, You’ll Want to Own This 8.4% Dividend

Michael Foster, Investment Strategist
Updated: September 22, 2025

$20 trillion.

That’s how much value has been added to the US housing market in the last five years. It’s a number so big it’s near-impossible to get your head around. And it’s a double-edged sword.

On the one hand, if you own a house, that house is worth more, and you’re richer as a result. But if you don’t, buying is expensive and comes with a higher risk of a price drop. That’s because this $20-trillion gain is a 57% increase since 2020, or 9.5% per year.

That is, simply put, unsustainable.

Which is why, today, we’re going to look at a way to hedge against this risk and collect an 8.4% dividend as you do. If you don’t own a home, this is the perfect way to get into real estate—with less risk than your typical homeowner takes on!

But let’s put the stats in context first.

Over the last 30 years, housing has risen an average of 4.8% annualized, or about half of the gain since 2020.

A jump like that might make you think of the 2000s housing bubble and Great Recession. It’s only natural to worry that something like that may be around the corner.

Luckily, that’s unlikely. The causes of that crash don’t really exist anymore—we aren’t seeing zero-down mortgages, exotic dancers buying multiple homes, and negative equity piling up. Mostly this is because zero-down loans are largely a thing of the past. Moreover, mortgage rates are still elevated, which moderates homebuying.

The result is a situation where many Americans are locked into their homes (if they got a good rate in the 2010s or an amazing rate in the pandemic), can’t buy, or, if they have a home, can sell and make a strong profit—if they’re willing to downsize.

But there is a crowd that can sell property without downsizing: professional real estate investors. Here I’m talking specifically about real estate investment trusts (REITs)—and more specifically the 8%+ yielding closed-end funds (CEFs) that hold them.

REITs, of course, hold everything from warehouses to celltowers, and each individual REIT often owns dozens, hundreds or even thousands of properties.

This lets them sell properties in places where price gains have been the strongest and lock in those gains. They can then buy in places where gains have been more muted.

Or REITs can pivot to tap rising demand in other kinds of real estate. Data centers are a good example. They’re often built on cheap land and collect huge rents from the likes of Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL) and OpenAI.

This 8.4%-Paying REIT Fund Should be Pricey, But It’s Not—Yet

When you look at the flexibility REITs have over individual homeowners, you’d think that funds holding REITs would  trade at huge premiums to their true value.

But they’re not.

Consider the Nuveen Real Estate Income Fund (JRS), an 8.4%-yielder I love (it’s a holding in my CEF Insider service), but the market doesn’t share my affection.

In fact, very few other investors have ever heard of JRS, because most simply default to an ETF when investing in REITs. That’s too bad, because they’re missing out on both high yields (REIT ETFs tend to pay around 4% or less) and upside.

A big part of that upside comes in the form of CEFs’ discounts to net asset value (NAV, or the value of their underlying portfolios). JRS trades at a 6.8% discount today.

So we can buy its portfolio of top-notch REITs for around 93 cents on the dollar—even though JRS (in purple below) has beaten REITs overall (going by the performance of a popular REIT ETF, in orange) in the last five years.

JRS Beats REITs, Pays 8.4%

That’s impressive, since the benchmark SPDR Dow Jones REIT Index (RWR) yields 3.8%, less than half the income JRS provides! In other words, this fund is beating REITs and “translating” its gains into a strong cash stream.

Moreover, the dividend has only fluctuated a bit over the last five years, even with the 2022 interest-rate surge:

JRS Puts Shareholders First as Rates Rise

Source: Income Calendar

This dividend and total-return performance is impressive, as REITs borrow heavily to invest in their properties, and rising rates boost their borrowing costs. Higher rates also draw investors away from REITs and toward “safer” investments like Treasuries.

So why are investors sleeping on JRS? Its small size is part of the reason: With just $241 million in assets, it’s tiny compared to many ETFs (RWR, for example, is over 10 times JRS’s size, with $2.6 billion in assets.

Now let’s move on to JRS’s discount to NAV, because it’s in the “sweet spot.” Sitting at 6.8%, it’s wider than where it was at the start of the year. But it’s been narrowing (with the typical fluctuations you’d expect), giving the fund some “discount momentum.”

JRS’s Sale Ending Soon

This is a setup we love to see: Now that the discount is disappearing, JRS is delivering extra price gains on top of its huge dividend. That should shrink its discount further.

On top of that, JRS’s portfolio is growing in value. Its 92-REIT-strong portfolio is led by top holdings Prologis (PLD), a warehouse giant; data-center landlord Equinix (EQIX); senior-care REIT Ventas (VTR); and office REIT Highwoods Properties (HIW).

So if your real estate exposure is primarily in your home, JRS can help you diversify (and hedge against a pullback in residential real estate).

If you’re not a homeowner, this fund is a great way to gain access to a broad range of real estate—more than your individual homeowner ever could. Either way, you’ll also collect that sweet 8.4%-yielding dividend.

Thursday 25 September

BlackRock Energy & Resources Income Trust PLC ex-dividend date
Chelverton UK Dividend Trust PLC ex-dividend date
Diverse Income Trust PLC ex-dividend date
HgCapital Trust PLC ex-dividend date
Lowland Investment Co PLC ex-dividend date
Pollen Street Group Ltd ex-dividend date
Real Estate Credit Investment ex dividend date

The Independent

Debt Limit Markets© Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Top Wall Street exec warns of 1929-style crash – but only after massive gains in the short term

Story by Isabel Keane

A top Wall Street executive is warning of a 1929-style crash, where the stock market will go up significantly before crashing catastrophically, just as it had at the start of the Great Depression.

Mark Spitznagel, the hedge fund manager behind Universa Investments who made $1 billion in a single day for his clients during the 2015 “Flash Crash,” says he is seeing similarities to 1929, the year of the Wall Street crash, he told the Wall Street Journal

Spitznagel, a protege of “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is known for hedging tail risks, or strategies that lose some money most of the time but earn big when the market collapses.

“I’m the crash guy — I remain the crash guy,” Spitznagel told the Journal.

Spitznagel is warning individual investors against making hasty changes to their portfolios, noting those who can’t buy tail-risk protection will still make positive returns in the long run if they don’t sell.

“The biggest risk to investors isn’t the market – it’s themselves,” he said.

Spitznagel sees a strong rally ahead, with short-term gains potentially pushing the S&P stock index up to as high as 8,000 points, a 20 percent gain from today’s level, according to the report.

However, he expects the rally to eventually lead to a big, 1929-style crash, meaning there would be a large and potentially catastrophic downturn following the gains.

Spitznagel believes this, in part, because every time the market or economy runs into trouble, the Federal Reserve steps in to save it with moves such as low interest rates or bailouts.

If a major sellout is looming, as Spitznagel says, large gains now would not be out of the norm, according to the report. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has returned 26 percent annualized in the 12 months preceding the start of a bear market, or a sustained market downturn.

The last 12 months’ rally has been twice as high as that average ahead of the 1929 peak, according to the report.

Both individual and professional investors typically increase their stocks during times like today, according to the report. Strategists at State Street said that institutional investors’ exposure to equities has reached its highest since November 2007, just before a vicious bear market.

“The markets are perverse,” Spitznagel told the outlet. “They exist to screw people.”

Whilst no dividend is one hundred percent secure, there are a few checks you can take before you risk your hard earned.

Let’s use SUPR as the working example

Dividend History

A progressive dividend

A hold or a small reduction is acceptable, subject to the yield available.

Broker Targets

Does anyone agree with your analysis ?

What does the company say

The Company’s properties earn long-dated, secure, inflation-linked, growing rental income. SUPR targets a progressive dividend and the potential for long term capital growth.

17/09/25

Your duty

To check when the next dividend is announced around the beginning of October.

Target

Current yield. On a 10k investment you should earn £785, gently increasing.

You can re-invest your dividends either back into SUPR or another high yielder.

In roughly ten years you should have received all your capital back as income and as long as the company isn’t taken over and keeps paying a dividend you will have achieved the holy grail of investing of having a company that pays you income at a cost of zero, zilch, nothing.

Not only that you should have another position paying you dividends.

Goldman raises S&P 500 targets, expects earnings to remain key driver

Author Vahid Karaahmetovic

Published 09/22/2025

© Reuters

Investing.com — Goldman Sachs has raised its S&P 500 forecasts, saying robust earnings growth should drive further gains even as valuations remain elevated.

The bank now expects the index to reach 6800 by year-end, 7000 in six months, and 7200 over the next 12 months, implying returns of 2%, 5%, and 8% respectively from current levels. The revision reflects Goldman rolling forward its 3-, 6- and 12-month return forecasts.

Earnings growth is seen as the key driver. Goldman projects S&P 500 EPS to rise 7% in both 2025 and 2026, with earnings accounting for the majority of this year’s 14% total return.

The bank said EPS growth has contributed 55% of returns so far in 2025, compared with 37% from valuation expansion and 8% from dividends.

“With long-term interest rates relatively stable, earnings should remain the primary driver of equity upside going forward,” strategists led by David Kostin said in a note.

The upgrade comes after the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut since 2024, lowering the funds rate by 25 basis points. Goldman’s economists expect two more cuts this year and two more in 2026, leaving the terminal rate at 3–3.25%.

While the policy shift has helped valuations expand, the Wall Street bank sees current multiples as broadly fair, with real 10-year Treasury yields unlikely to fall much further without a deterioration in the economic outlook.

Investor positioning remains light despite record highs, with Goldman’s Sentiment Indicator at -0.3. The bank said this adds to the near-term upside case if the macro backdrop stays supportive.

Historical trends also reinforce the view, as the S&P 500 delivered median six-month and 12-month returns of 8% and 15%, respectively, in past cutting cycles where growth continued.

Goldman highlights that Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have historically led in similar environments, while high-growth and high-volatility stocks tend to outperform.

Rate-sensitive trades, however, may fade, with the bank preferring exposure to firms carrying high floating-rate debt, which directly benefits from lower borrowing costs.

Overall, Goldman expects U.S. equities to extend gains, supported by steady growth, accommodative Fed policy, and earnings momentum.

“An accommodative Fed and an economy that accelerates into 2026 should allow the market to maintain its current multiple,” the strategists said.