Investment Trust Dividends

Month: November 2024 (Page 1 of 12)

Why Lifestyling can be such a bad choice

If the portfolio makes it’s target for 2025 of 10k, after ten years if the dividends are re-invested at a blended yield of 7% the income target will be 20k.

If you stay invested for another 5 years, the income would rise by another 7k but only with a dividend re-investment plan.


“A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step” is a Chinese proverb that originates from the Tao te Ching. The meaning of this saying is that even the most difficult and longest ventures have a specific starting point. Similarly, it implies that daunting tasks can typically be begun by doing something very simple.

Gilts

In a previous post I stated if u bought gilts you are guaranteed not lose any of your hard earned.

Above you would have lost money if u bought at the wrong time.

On the 7th June 2028 the gilt would be redeemed at £100.00 hence the GRY of 4.12% versus the Income yield of 4.45%.

Rules for the Snowball.

For new readers, don’t panic there are only 3.

One.

Buy Investment Trusts* that pay a ‘secure’ dividend and use those dividends to buy more Investment Trusts that pay a ‘secure’ dividend.

Two.

Any IT that drastically changes their dividend policy must be sold, even at a loss.

Three.

Remember the rules.

* The Snowball will only buy Investment Trusts as most Trusts have reserves to pay their dividends as during the covid crisis. U may find other shares to buy but not for me. KISS

Fidelity’s fund picks for US equity bulls

28 November 2024

Almost 40% of investment professionals expect the US to beat other regions next year.

By Emma Wallis,

News editor, Trustnet

Four in 10 fund groups expect the US to be the best performing region in 2025, according to Quilter Investors’ latest investor trends survey.

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, said the US economy has proven incredibly resilient against the high interest rate environment. With president-elect Donald Trump promising additional fiscal spending and deregulation, “conditions look ripe for a stock market boon”.

Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity International, agreed. “The US economy looks well primed and ready for growth, having expanded at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter after recording 3% growth the quarter before. The economy has shown itself to be resilient in the face of shocks, supported by a sharp fall in inflation and a generally healthy labour market,” he said.

Besides the ‘Trump bump’, another reason to consider US equities at present is the Santa rally phenomenon, whereby stock markets put in a good showing during the final month of the year. Since 1994, the S&P 500 has delivered positive returns in 23 Decembers and made losses in only seven, according to Fidelity.

For investors who have a bullish outlook on US equities, Stevenson suggested three funds: Brown Advisory’s US Sustainable Growth and US Smaller Companies funds; and the Dodge & Cox Worldwide US Stock fund.

Brown Advisory US Sustainable Growth benefits from an experienced portfolio management team and a strong pool of company analysts, he said. “The fund is mostly invested in larger companies with a durable competitive advantage and steady rather than necessarily rapid growth. It also has a focus on quality. This is a reasonably concentrated growth portfolio of between 30 and 40 holdings.”

The Dodge & Cox Worldwide US Stock fund is also relatively concentrated but it has a more contrarian approach, often buying companies with depressed share prices. As such, it would blend well with Brown Advisory US Sustainable Growth, he said.

Performance of funds vs sector over 5yrs

Source: FE Analytics

“The Dodge & Cox fund’s value bias is reflected in a low forward-earnings multiple of 14.7x and trailing dividend yield of 1.8% as at the end of September. The same metrics for the S&P 500 were 22.5x and 1.3%.”

Smaller companies tend to earn a greater proportion of their profits from the domestic economy so they “may well be swept higher by the Trump tide”, Stevenson said. Hence why he suggested the Brown Advisory US Smaller Companies fund, which seeks stocks with above-average growth, sound management and competitive advantages. Brown Advisory is based in the US and has an extensive team researching and investing in smaller companies, he added.

Performance of fund vs benchmark and sector over 5yrs

Source: FE Analytics

Other US small-cap funds recently recommended by experts include Artemis US Smaller Companies and Federated Hermes US SMID Equity.

Not everyone is bullish on the US, however. While 38.9% of investment professionals told Quilter the US will outperform – more consensus than for any other region – another 12.5% of respondents believe the opposite, predicting the US will lag other markets next year.

James shares some of their concerns. Over the longer term, Trump’s isolationist economic policies “threaten to throw a spanner in the works” by driving up inflation and interest rates, she said.

“For a man who wants the stock market to be a barometer of his success, he will not want to drastically upset investors by causing any share price corrections. It will be a fascinating balance to watch him try to achieve.”

Stevenson also sounded a note of caution: “Recent trading sessions in New York suggest the ‘Trump bump’ could quite easily fade. There’s a renewed fear around the reduced likelihood of an interest rate cut, which is no longer a foregone conclusion. Moreover, future tariffs will likely impact US consumer companies through higher input costs.”

The dollar has soared over the past month, which  will hurt exports and the earnings of American multinationals, he added. 

“Despite these challenges, it’s hard to ignore the underlying strength of America’s corporate sector, or that the country has skirted a recession without the assistance of a sustained period of lower interest rates. Company earnings are currently expected to grow by around 9% this year and 15% next. These factors support the case for a continuation of the current bull market,” he concluded.

HEIT

Harmony Energy Income Trust plc
(the “Company” or “HEIT”)

Portfolio Update, Net Asset Value and Asset Sale Process

Harmony Energy Income Trust plc, which invests in battery energy storage system (“BESS”) assets in Great Britain (“GB”), announces its unaudited Net Asset Value (“NAV”) update, a portfolio and operational update for the three months ended 31 October 2024 (the “Period”) and an update to its previously announced asset sale process.

Key Highlights

·        The unaudited NAV at 31 October 2024 was £201.04 million, or 88.51 pence per Ordinary Share, a decrease of 6.33 pence per Ordinary Share (-6.68%) compared to 31 July 2024.  The decrease was driven by an increase (+25bps) in the discount rate applied to operating projects together with lower revenue assumptions and an increase in opex budget for FY 2025. The fall was partially offset by the roll forward effect and an increase in the mark-to-market valuation of the Company’s interest rate swap.  

·          Increased opex budget is driven by recent increases in network access charges (set by individual DNOs).

·        Wormald Green (66 MWh / 33 MW) and Hawthorn Pit (99.8 MWh / 49.9 MW) were successfully energised during the Period and have commenced trading, taking the Company’s total operational capacity to 790.8 MWh / 395.4 MW (100% of the portfolio).  Revenue for these projects is recognised from November 2024 onwards.

·     Portfolio revenues of £62.4k/MW/Yr for the Period, an increase of 38% vs the previous quarter        (£45.3k/MW/Yr). Performance was driven by higher wholesale market spreads and increasing balancing mechanism volumes. Revenue growth was offset by some portfolio unavailability due to scheduled network outages. 

·      Total operational revenues  for the current Financial Year (up to 31 October) of £15.96 million            (£55.5k/MW/Yr). 

·          Further improved revenue performance in November (£67.8k/MW/Yr, estimated month-to-date and on a full-portfolio basis).

·         Asset sale process continues to progress well.  An encouraging number of non-binding offers were received, with a short-list of bidders progressing through to the detailed due diligence stage. Subject to receipt of sufficiently attractive final offers, the intention would be to enter exclusivity with a preferred bidder in December and sign binding agreements in January 2025.

Portfolio Update

The portfolio is now fully operational and consists of eight 2-hour duration BESS projects totalling 790.8 MWh / 395.4 MW.  The Wormald Green and Hawthorn Pit projects commenced trading in October and have been active in wholesale markets and the Balancing Mechanism (“BM”) during November. Both projects will soon enter the Ancillary Service markets.

ProjectMWh / MWLocationStatus
Pillswood196 / 98YorkshireOperational
Broadditch22 / 11KentOperational
Farnham40 / 20SurreyOperational
Bumpers198 / 99Bucks.Operational
Little Raith99 / 49.5FifeOperational
Rusholme70 / 35YorkshireOperational
Wormald Green66 / 33YorkshireOperational
Hawthorn Pit99.8 / 49.9County DurhamOperational
Total790.8 / 395.4 

Asset Sale Process

As previously announced, the Board appointed JLL to seek offers for some or all of the Company’s assets. The process has attracted strong interest and an encouraging number of non-binding offers were received in September, relating to both individual assets as well as the full portfolio. A selected number of parties were allowed to progress through to the detailed due diligence stage. The level of due diligence being undertaken is thorough and has resulted in bidders requesting more time. The transaction timetable has therefore extended by one month. Subject to receipt of sufficiently attractive final offers, the intention would be for the Company to enter exclusivity with a preferred bidder in December with a view to signing binding agreements in January 2025. 

Market Commentary

August revenues rebounded from July, increasing to £72k/MW/year average across 2-hour GB fleet, driven by high wind generation paired with periods of low demand. This dynamic resulted in 49 hours of negative Day-Ahead wholesale pricing, significantly widening price spreads and creating lucrative opportunities for BESS to capitalise on market volatility. October also saw higher average 2-hour BESS revenues, hitting £70k/MW/year, boosted by the widest wholesale price spreads observed since December 2023: Day-Ahead power price spreads averaged £83/MWh, with daily spreads exceeding £100/MWh on ten occasions during the month. High levels of BM dispatches also played a key role, enabling BESS to provide flexibility during periods of wind curtailment, further enhancing revenue performance. The strong correlation between BESS performance and levels of renewable power generation experienced during 2024 (year to date) highlights the critical role of storage in the UK’s energy transition.

Portfolio Performance and Outlook

The Company’s operational portfolio generated revenue (net of all electricity import charges and state of charge management costs) of £4.88 million over the Period (£62.4k/MW/Yr). For the full Financial Year (up to 31 October), the portfolio generated revenue (net of all electricity import charges and state of charge management costs) of £15.96 million (£55.5k/MW/Yr). The portfolio continued to experience a higher than usual number of outage events during September and October, due to scheduled short-term DNO technical works at local sub-stations and connection points. The IA estimates that, had the portfolio been fully available during the Period, the revenue would have been c.£69k/MW/Yr. The IA continues to work closely with DNOs to maximise project availability.

Volumes captured in the BM continued to grow, with August 2024 seeing the second-highest monthly total of over 12,000 MWh captured by the portfolio, generating £522k in revenue (£20k/MW/Yr). Since the relaunch of the Open Balancing Platform (OBP) and the removal of the ’15-minute’ rule in Q2, average BM monthly dispatch volumes have increased by approximately 300%, rising from c.2,920 MWh to c.11,456 MWh. As previously reported, spreads in the BM are consistently wider than in the wholesale markets. Therefore, an increase in capture rates helps 2-hr duration BESS cushion any negative impact of volatile wholesale spreads.

Strong revenue performance has continued through November (£67.6k/MW/Yr estimated month-to-date on a full-portfolio basis), with wholesale gas prices trending upwards, volatile temperatures and stormy weather conditions. The Company expects these conditions to continue through winter and will seek to capitalise by increasing average cycling over the coming months.  In addition, the Company is engaging with third party service providers to explore opportunities to increase levels of contracted income across the portfolio from spring 2025.

NAV Update 31 July 2024

As at 31 October 2024, the Company’s unaudited NAV was £201.04 million (88.51 pence per Ordinary Share). This represents a decrease of 6.33 pence per Ordinary Share (-6.68%) compared to 31 July 2024. The principal movements are (i) an increase (+25bps) in the discount rates applicable to operating projects (-2.36 pence per Ordinary Share); (ii) a reduction in third party revenue forecasts (-2.41 pence per Ordinary Share); (iii) an increase in opex assumptions, largely driven by higher network access charges (-4.14 pence per Ordinary Share); and (iv) an increase in the mark-to-market valuation of the Company’s interest rate swap (+0.87 pence per Ordinary Share). Movements are shown in the table below.

ItemImpact (pence per Ordinary Share)
Operating Free Cash Flow+1.28
NAV Roll Forward+2.14
Change in Discount Rates-2.36
Change in Revenue Assumptions-2.41
Change in Opex Assumptions-4.14
Derivatives Valuation+0.87
Debt Service-1.12
Fund Expenses-0.31
Other-0.28
Total-6.33

Long-term revenue assumptions (derived from third party revenue forecasts) have reduced since 31 July 2024 by 0.9% (in NPV terms).  Decreases in the long-term revenue assumptions were partially offset by small increases applied to the next three years (being a partial recovery from the larger reductions published earlier this year, reflecting the positive movements in the underlying fundamentals).

In addition, and in line with guidance from the Company’s Independent Valuer, the discount rate for operational projects has been increased by 25bps (10.25% from 10.00%). The discount rates for projects with less than 3 months operating history has also increased by 25bps (10.50% up from 10.25%).

Applying the above, the applicable discount rates for Rusholme, Hawthorn Pit and Wormald Green remain at 10.50%, with 10.25% applied to the balance of the Portfolio. The applicable discount rate for projects under construction has been removed from the analysis given that 100% of the Portfolio is now operational.

Inflation and tax assumptions used in calculating the NAV have not changed since 31 July 2024.

Factsheet

The Company’s factsheet for 31 October 2024 (including, inter alia, a NAV bridge and detailed long-term revenue; cost and inflation assumptions; and monthly revenue breakdowns) is available on the Company’s website at: https://www.heitp.co.uk/investors/results-reports-and-presentations/

Norman Crighton, Chair of Harmony Energy Income Trust plc, said:

“The continued upwards trend of portfolio revenue levels as we move into the winter months is encouraging and provides confidence that HEIT’s 100% operational portfolio is well positioned to capitalise on strengthening macro drivers being witnessed in the GB energy sector.”

More Poison Ivy than Holly

The term “Hobson’s choice” is often used to mean an illusion of choice, but it is not a choice between two equivalent options, which a Morton’s fork, nor is it a choice between two undesirable options, which is a dilemma. Hobson’s choice is one between something or nothing.

If holly had bought an annuity instead of being lifestyled, she would have received 25% tax free and income of £20k p.a.

Canada Life figures show the 65-year-old with a £100,000 pension pot could buy an annuity linked to the retail price index (RPI) that would generate a starting annual income of £3,896. That’s up from £2,195 in the New Year following a 77% spike in rates this year.
Oct 22.

I believe that’s Hobson’s choice.

Lifestyling to a poorer future.

lost pension

Have you lost money through pension lifestyling? Please email: money@telegraph.co.uk

Holly* never imagined working past 65. After decades of nine-to-five as a receptionist, she was looking forward to spending her twilight years caring for her new born granddaughter.

In December 2021, 18 months before her expected retirement date, she received a statement showing that her pot had grown to a healthy £740,000.

But when she checked just three months later, the value of her investments had plummeted to £400,000.

“I was absolutely devastated,” she said. “It came as a horrible shock. At first I thought I was being scammed.”

Holly had fallen victim to pension “lifestyling” – –an investment strategy pitched as a way to take the risk out of retirement.

Lifestyling involves growth-focused stocks and equities being sold off in favour of traditionally lower-risk investments like bonds – as well as cash – in the years leading up to retirement.

It is the default strategy for defined contribution (DC) pension schemes, meaning most providers will rebalance members’ investments in this way unless they opt out.

One problem is that buying a bond is no longer low-risk. Government bonds – known as gilts – have performed poorly since the Bank of England raised interest rates from near-zero to 5pc between 2021 and 2023.

Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate, so when Bank Rate rises, they become less valuable. It means many savers have seen tens of thousands of pounds wiped off the value of their retirement pots after being told “de-risking” was the sensible thing to do.

For Holly, her diminished wealth has ruined her retirement dream. Now aged 66, she has been forced to keep on working – as a personal assistant at a law firm – and is not sure when she will be able to retire.

“I couldn’t look after my granddaughter because I was working, so her parents had to pay for childcare. I still can’t help and she’s nearly two.

When she contacted her provider, Aviva, she was told that three-quarters of her portfolio had been invested in long-dated government bonds (known as gilts), which had fallen in value considerably.

She is frustrated with Aviva and Origen Financial Services – a firm hired by her employer to explain investment options to staff. Holly claimed she had told Origen that she wanted a low-risk strategy and not to worry about her pension until the time came to use it.

“They said lifestyling was a ‘safe bet’, but it wasn’t.”

She added that it was “appalling” people in her position were not informed of the potential risks of lifestyling – or notified if their investments were falling.

Lifestyling pensions were designed for people who buy an annuity – ensures a guaranteed income for life – as the vast majority of savers did before pension freedom rules were introduced in 2015.

However, the rule change meant a greater number of savers have opted to “draw down” chunks of their pension while keeping the rest invested.

For savers in this position, investing in bonds and cash rather than equities will usually mean lower returns in the long run. Despite this shift, lifestyling has remained the default option.

Adam Walkom, a financial planner at Permanent Wealth Partners, said lifestyling is a “weapon of wealth destruction” based on a misunderstanding of the concept of risk in retirement.

He added: “Lifestyling tries to reduce a narrow definition of ‘risk’ which is the volatility of the pension coming up to retirement.

“This is based on the antiquated idea that people need a lump sum of cash to buy an annuity – and they don’t want its potential value to change drastically.

“The key risk of any retiree is not the volatility of their assets – it’s running out of money before they die.

“You run out of money when assets grow less than inflation over the years.

“With lifestyling, pensions will sit in cash and bonds which will grow far less than if they were in equities, and are almost guaranteed not to grow faster than inflation over a long period of time. It’s like putting a shoebox of money under the bed.”

The concept that bonds are low-risk has also been “completely disproven” by Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-Budget, he added. The slew of unfunded tax cuts announced in September 2022 sparked a market confidence crisis, causing borrowing costs to soar and bond prices to collapse.

Holly has taken her case to the pensions ombudsman, but she doesn’t hold out much hope of it finding in her favour.

Mr Walkom said he can understand the anger of people in Holly’s position.

“Lifestyling has caused a permanent loss of capital, exactly what it claims not to do.

“95pc of the population don’t understand pensions. When letters are sent, they don’t understand them. These are the people lifestyling ends up hurting.

“This is a slow-ticking time bomb. People won’t work this out until it’s too late. ‘Why haven’t my investments grown?’ ‘Because we moved it into bonds.’ ‘But I never understood any of this.’ ‘Well, too bad, it was in our small print.’ These are the conversations that people have.”

Pension providers had an “enormous responsibility” to better inform customers of the true risks of the strategy and how their investments were performing, he added.

An Aviva spokesman said: “We have fully investigated our customer’s concerns and have found the value of their pension pot fell due to unprecedented market volatility during 2022.

“We can’t comment on the Lifestyling investment strategy for this specific scheme because that would have been agreed by the adviser with the employer when the company pension was set up.

“Generally, we believe Lifestyling as an investment strategy is an appropriate mechanism to reduce risk approaching retirement. The intention is to reduce risk, but this cannot be guaranteed, particularly when investment markets are especially volatile.

“We encourage pension savers to seek financial advice when considering their options or taking significant action.”

An Origen spokesman said: “Whilst we sympathise with their situation, in this instance the customer chose not to receive financial advice from Origen on their workplace pension scheme.

“While workplace pensions offer a convenient way for employees to save for retirement, personalised financial advice can help individuals tailor their retirement plans towards their financial goals.

££££££££££

Remember if you buy a government gilt and hold to maturity the payout is guaranteed, any other action is a gamble for meagre returns.

What’s your plan ?

Accumulation period.

The blog portfolio started on 09/09/22 with 100k of seed capital.

If that seed capital had been invested in VWRP

Your seed capital would be worth today 134k.

De-Accumulation.

Option one.

Take out an annuity paying around 5.5%

£7.37k pa.

You have to gift your capital to the provider, so not an option for me.

Also in the future if interest rates are low it could be under 3k pa, at least Dick Turpin had the decency to wear a mask.

Option two.

The 4 percent rule, you take out 4% from your fund every year, in case there is a market crash it’s recommended that u keep a cash buffer of three years but we will ignore it for this example.

£5.36k but you retain your cash, not guaranteed, to pass on to your nearest and dearest.

If interest rates are higher than 4%, you could buy government securities reducing your risk and have more time to spend your hard earned.

Option three.

Accrue your dividends, current fcast £9,120 pa, hopefully as dividends are increased the amount could rise, not guaranteed as the income could fall but you still have your capital to fall back on.

The longer you have to re-invest the dividends the larger your final income could be.

One option in the Accumulation stage would be to have a percentage in a tracker fund and the balance earning dividends and switch into ‘safer’ yielding trusts as you approach your retirement date. Past performance in no guarantee of future performance, especially as Goldman Sachs predicts an annual return of 3% for the next ten years.

Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to return a measly 3% per annum because of high current valuations and the benchmark’s extreme concentration.

But as always it’s best to DYOR and even a bad plan is better than no plan.

At the end of each year review your plan and tweak it remembering history never repeats but it often rhymes. GL

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