City of London Investment Trust (CTY)

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Disclosure – Non-Independent Marketing Communication

This is a non-independent marketing communication commissioned by City of London Investment Trust (CTY). The report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on the dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

KEPLER

A strong year of stock picking puts CTY well ahead of the benchmark.

Overview

City of London Investment Trust (CTY) aims to deliver income and capital growth. Job Curtis has an impressive tenure of 34 years managing the trust, giving him a depth of experience rarely matched. In particular, the last financial year illustrated the benefits of his active, stock-picking approach. That said, this is a cautious investment strategy that is arguably well suited to extending CTY’s unrivalled 59 year run of progressive dividend increases.

Job seeks to spread risks – both in terms of capital and income generation – across the portfolio. This has protected CTY against many sector-specific issues that have arisen over the years, but also in our view complements Job’s valuation-based investment framework, which favours quality companies, and sometimes has a contrarian tilt towards identifying new ideas. Job aims to balance any lower yielders in the portfolio by also investing in steady, highly resilient dividend payers with strong balance sheets. As we highlight in the Portfolio section, this means that CTY is exposed to a range of different types of companies, with varying growth and income characteristics.

Behind the headline-grabbing Dividend Hero moniker, CTY continues to deliver on a NAV total return basis too. CTY has delivered outperformance of the benchmark over one, three, five and ten years.

CTY’s dividend represents a yield of 4.25%. Whilst the dividend increase last year of 3.4% was a shade behind that of UK CPI at 3.6%, the board has stated that it understands the importance of growing the dividend in real terms through the economic cycle and long term. CTY has delivered real dividend growth over ten and twenty years, as we discuss in the Dividend section.

Analyst’s View

CTY has established itself as the leading trust in the UK Equity Income sector, a result not only of its long history of dividend increases over the past 59 years, but also because it has delivered good total returns to shareholders too. As a result, it has won investors’ confidence over time, issuing shares and growing organically so that it now dominates the UK Equity Income sector in terms of size, meaning good liquidity for investors and low Charges.

CTY’s 2025 dividend equates to a dividend yield of 4.25%. Not only is this attractive in absolute terms, so too is the fact that shareholders can derive an element of reassurance that comes with knowing CTY has a 59-year track record of delivering consecutive annual dividend increases. However, this is no UK domestic play – the majority of CTY’s portfolio revenues are derived overseas. Job sees the UK equities he owns as ‘global growth at a discount’. Job expects takeovers of UK companies to continue, highlighting the value available in the UK market.

CTY also provides reassurance in another way – the share price has tended to move in a relatively narrow band with regard to the NAV. As we discuss in the Discount section, a subtle change in wording means the board has underlined its commitment to try to protect shareholders from the discount widening out. As well as its other attractions, the tight discount has been fundamental to allowing CTY to grow organically in the past through share issuance. With this move, shareholders can continue to have confidence in continued good liquidity, and that the share price should follow the NAV. In our view, CTY appears well placed to continue its leadership within the UK Equity Income sector.

Bull

  • Very low OCF of 0.36%
  • Consistency and experience of manager who has delivered long-term outperformance of the FTSE All-Share Index in capital and income terms
  • Track record of 59 years of progressive dividend increases

Bear

  • Cautious approach means that NAV can underperform in some market conditions
  • Income track record highly attractive, so manager might risk long-term capital growth in trying to maintain it
  • Structural gearing can exacerbate the downside

A Trust to research for ‘pair trading’.