Not Naval gazing, that’s a totally different topic for boys and girls.

At 207%, the Warren Buffett indicator says the stock market could crash!

Zaven Boyrazian, CFA

Sun, 10 Aug 2025

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has shared a lot of wisdom throughout his successful career. However, one gem to come off his desk is the Buffett Indicator – a simple comparison of the US stock market’s total value divided by US GDP.

As Buffett puts it, the indicator is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. And for value investors, knowing when the stock market is overpriced is a powerful advantage, even when relying only on index funds.

However, looking at the Buffett Indicator today might cause some concern.

US stocks are expensive

Historically, his Indicator has sat between 90% and 135%. This healthy range generally indicates that US stocks are fairly-to-slightly overvalued and presents an ideal window of opportunity to top up on investments. But following the tremendous artificial intelligence (AI)-driven returns of 2023 and 2024, the indicator’s been rising. So much so that it now sits at a whopping 207%!

That’s the highest it’s ever been since records began in the 1970s. And it’s even higher than the 194% peak seen in late 2021, right before US stocks experienced one of the most severe market corrections seen in over a decade.

That would certainly explain why Buffett and his team at investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway have been busy selling stocks lately. In fact, the firm just marked its 11th consecutive quarter of being a net seller, with positions such as Bank of America, Citigroup, and Capital One all getting trimmed, or outright sold off.

So could another stock market downturn be just around the corner?

Panic isn’t a strategy

The stretched valuation of US stocks definitely creates cause for concern. However, there’s no guarantee a crash or correction will actually materialise. Therefore, panic selling everything today likely isn’t a sensible strategy, and it’s why Buffett, despite higher selling activity, still has plenty of capital invested in the US stock market.

Dividends can be more reliable than share prices as they’re driven by
the companies performance itself and not by the whim of investors.

As part of a total return / reinvestment strategy, this income could be
reinvested into income assets or back into the equity market
depending on the relative valuations.

The emotional benefits of dividend re-investment, in fact, with this investment strategy you can actually welcome falling share prices.