BARCLAYS CUTS ASSURA GROUP PRICE TARGET TO 44 (47) PENCE – ‘OVERWEIGHT’
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Whilst everyday is a good day, including weekends and holidays, to have a dividend re-investment plan, some days are much better than others.
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Until the New Year, any new information is scarce, so if anyone want’s to contribute any articles for publication on the blog, next week would be a good time to post.
Currently there is xd income of £1,578 and cash of £770. The most probable destination for the cash is AGR, which would add to the Snowball another £190.00 of income. But as always best to DYOR.
GRS but GR.
QuotedData’s Real Estate Monthly Roundup – December 2024
Richard Williams
Winners and losers in November 2024
| Best performing funds in price terms | (%) |
|---|---|
| Alpha Real Trust | 9.5 |
| Globalworth Real Estate | 8.5 |
| Residential Secure Income | 5.3 |
| IWG | 4.5 |
| Custodian Property Income REIT | 3.2 |
| Grainger | 3.1 |
| Value & Indexed Property Income Trust | 1.9 |
| Hammerson | 1.8 |
| Workspace Group | 1.8 |
| Supermarket Income REIT | 1.3 |
Source: Bloomberg, Marten & Co
| Worst performing funds in price terms | (%) |
|---|---|
| Grit Real Estate Income Group | (17.6) |
| CLS Holdings | (12.3) |
| Life Science REIT | (12.2) |
| Conygar Investment Company | (11.5) |
| Big Yellow Group | (11.3) |
| Real Estate Investors | (8.8) |
| Safestore | (8.0) |
| Ground Rents Income Fund | (7.6) |
| Target Healthcare REIT | (7.4) |
| Urban Logistics REIT | (7.3) |
Source: Bloomberg, Marten & Co
Best performing funds
Real estate share prices settled somewhat in November but were still down 1.4% on average having declined almost 5% in October, as the impact of the budget raised the potential for a higher-for-longer interest rates environment. There was an eclectic mix of positive share price movers in the month, led by real estate debt specialist Alpha Real Trust. Post month end, the company announced that it would seek to delist, offering minority shareholders a tender offer at NAV. Residential Secure Income saw its share price trend upwards for a second consecutive month after announcing a proposed managed wind-down in October. Custodian Property Income REIT’s quarterly valuation update shows that values may have turned a corner (see the valuation moves section below), highlighting that its shares may be too cheap. Hammerson’s continued operational and balance sheet strengthening, including the launch of a £140m share buyback programme, seems to be gaining traction with investors. The reaction to the proposed change in the basis of Supermarket Income REIT’s management fee (from NAV to share price – see corporate news section) has been surprisingly muted.
Worst performing funds
Potentially higher-for-longer interest rates resulted in many of the highly leveraged or rate sensitive companies suffer once again. Grit Real Estate Income Group, which has a high cost of borrowing, continued to lose value as its share price plummeted another 17.6% over the month, and it has halved in size over the 11 months of 2024. The African real estate developer and investor now has an astonishingly low market cap of around £50m, despite owning a freshly capitalised development partner with lucrative US Embassy-backed diplomatic housing projects in the pipeline. Fellow perennial 2024 share price victims CLS Holdings and Life Science REIT also recorded double-digit declines in November. Office landlord CLS faces a tricky few months with several loans due to mature in 2025. Meanwhile, interest rate hedges in place on debt that Life Science REIT is using to develop its flagship scheme expire next year. The two self-storage operators, Big Yellow and Safestore, both suffered as fears for subdued economic growth and a floundering housing market grew. Ground Rents Income Fund made significant progress in its strategy to sell down assets with the sale of its largest holding (see the news section).
Valuation moves
| Company | Sector | NAV move (%) | Period | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Care REIT | Healthcare | 0.6 | Quarter to 30 Sept 24 | 1.0% like-for-like increase in property portfolio valuation to £672.1m |
| Custodian Property Income REIT | Diversified | 0.4 | Quarter to 30 Sept 24 | Value of the company’s portfolio was £582.4m, an increase of 0.5% on a like-for-like basis |
| abrdn European Logistics Income | Europe | (0.3) | Quarter to 30 Sept 24 | Portfolio valuation remained stable at €607.5m |
| Triple Point Social Housing REIT | Residential | (1.4) | Quarter to 30 Sept 24 | 0.9% decrease in the valuation of the company’s property portfolio |
| abrdn Property Income Trust | Diversified | (11.3) | Quarter to 30 Sept 24 | Reduction reflects price agreed on sale of company’s portfolio |
| AEW UK REIT | Diversified | 6.2 | Half-year to 30 Sept 24 | Value of portfolio up 2.3% to £215.6m |
| Warehouse REIT | Industrial | 2.5 | Half-year to 30 Sept 24 | Like-for-like portfolio valuation up 2.3% to £811.3m |
| LondonMetric Property | Logistics | 2.1 | Half-year to 30 Sept 24 | 0.7% property valuation increase to £6.2bn |
| Land Securities | Diversified | 1.4 | Half-year to 30 Sept 24 | Portfolio valuation up 0.9% to £9,957m |
| Sirius Real Estate | Europe | 1.2 | Half-year to 30 Sept 24 | Marginal valuation uplift to €2,349.0m |
| Schroder REIT | Diversified | 1.0 | Half-year to 30 Sept 24 | Portfolio valuation increased by 0.9% to £465.5m |
| British Land | Diversified | 0.9 | Half-year to 30 Sept 24 | Values up 0.2% to £8,867m |
| Alpha Real Trust | Debt | 0.7 | Half-year to 30 Sept 24 | Uplift in earnings from high return debt |
| Picton Property | Diversified | 0.3 | Half-year to 30 Sept 24 | Like-for-like portfolio valuation increase of 0.8% to £721m |
| Assura Group | Healthcare | 0.2 | Half-year to 30 Sept 24 | Portfolio valued at £3.1bn following private hospital portfolio buy. Remainder of portfolio flat |
| Helical | Offices | 0.0 | Half-year to 30 Sept 24 | Valuation uplift of 1.3% to £371.9m |
| Urban Logistics REIT | Logistics | (1.4) | Half-year to 30 Sept 24 | Value of portfolio up 0.2% on like-for-like basis to £1.14bn |
Source: Marten & Co
“US stocks tumbled across the board on Tuesday, with the Dow marking its longest losing streak in 46 years,” commented SPI’s Stephen Innes. “This downturn suggests insufficient sector reindeer are pulling their weight to sustain Santa’s holiday rally sleigh, especially against an increasingly perceived hawkish Fed outlook.”
The emotional benefits of dividend re-investment.
In fact, with this investment strategy you can actually welcome falling share prices.
There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult.
WB
Thursday 19 December
abrdn Property Income Trust Ltd ex-dividend date
Barings Emerging EMEA Opportunities PLC ex-dividend date
Diverse Income Trust PLC ex-dividend date
International Biotechnology Trust PLC ex-dividend date
International Public Partnerships Ltd dividend payment date
JPMorgan European Discovery Trust PLC ex-dividend date
STS Global Income & Growth Trust PLC ex-dividend date
Templeton Emerging Markets Investments Trust PLC ex-dividend date
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Market Summary – November 2024
Interest rate announcements, inflation data and asset valuations
| On 6 November 2024, the Bank of England (“the BoE”) reduced interest rates by 0.25% to 4.75%. On 7 November, the Federal Reserve (“the FED”) also reduced interest rates by 0.25% to 4.75%. The European Central Bank (“the ECB) did not reduce interest rates during November 2024, but did reduce them by 0.25% on 23 October 2024 to 3.25%, and again by a further 0.25% to 3.00% on 12 December 2024. Looking ahead, the Fed is also expected to cut policy rates by a further 0.25% during December 2024. In the UK, the most recent data on CPI inflation shows that it increased to 2.3% during October from 1.7% in September 2024. In the US, CPI inflation rose to 2.7% in November, from 2.6% in October 2024. In the ECB, CPI inflation increased to 2.3% for November 2024, up from 2.0% during October 2024. CPI inflation has risen across all three regions mainly due to continued upward pressure from energy costs. | |
| The markets generally expect energy costs to trend downwards during the next few months, which could help to reduce CPI inflation across all three regions. In the UK, wholesale gas prices are stabilizing, and the Ofgem energy price cap will reduce costs for households. In the US, energy prices are expected to stabilize or fall due to increased domestic oil and gas production. In Eurozone, high natural gas storage levels and diversified supply chains are reducing the risk of sharp price increases. | |
| Once a downwards trend toward a lower interest rate environment unfolds, this will be supportive of fixed rate loans and bonds. Further, as short-term rates begin to fall, yield curves will become less inverted or turn positive again, supporting a bid for risk in the market. | |
| As inflation abates in the long run, the likelihood of future interest rate cuts increases, which makes alternative investments such as infrastructure more attractive when compared to liquid debt. The markets have also priced in at least one further rate cut between now and the end of the year across all three regions. |