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Contrarian Outlook

Contrarian Outlook

2 “Lonely and Uncomfortable” Dividends up to 12.3% We Love (One More Than the Other)

Brett Owens, Chief Investment Strategist
Updated: July 28, 2026

When the world is burning—as it feels like it is now—it pays to remember the words of Howard Marks, the smartest money manager most people have never heard of.

The essence of Marks’s approach is contrarian thinking. In Chapter 11 of his excellent book, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor, he writes:

The ultimately most profitable investment actions are by definition contrarian: You’re buying when everyone else is selling (and the price is thus low), or you’re selling when everyone else is buying (and the price is high).

But he admits this isn’t easy: “These actions are lonely and uncomfortable.”

Lonely? Uncomfortable? That’s exactly how corporate-bond buyers feel these days!

We’re not just tipping our hats to these brave “loners.” We’re joining them with two “tossed-in-the-bin” bond closed-end funds (CEFs) paying up to 12.3%!

Rates Up, Bonds Down—But Something’s Got to Give

If you’ve been investing for income for a while, you likely know the golden rule of Bondland: When rates rise, bond prices fall (and vice versa). It’s simple—too simple, in fact! And it’s precisely why bonds are on the outs now.

The Iran conflict is flaring. Oil (the engine of inflation) is spiking. And even Fed chair Kevin Warsh—appointed, remember, to cut rates—can’t seem to hold back the tide. Futures markets tell the tale: A year from now, they see two Fed rate hikes in the bag—and potentially more.


Source: cmegroup.com

I know. This does not sound like the best bond-buying setup. But here’s the thing: Everybody knows it. The mainstream crowd—folks Marks calls “first-level investors” because they buy and sell on headlines—has already sold.

That’s fine for us “second-level” thinkers who dig deeper: It means the bad news is priced in. It also means it won’t take much for these funds’ discounts to reverse course and shrink.

The bottom line? Now is the time to buy.

To see what I’m getting at, consider the discount on the PIMCO Corporate & Income Opportunity Fund (PTY), one of the biggest corporate-bond CEFs.

As I write, PTY trades at a 2.7% premium to net asset value (NAV). That doesn’t sound cheap, but thinking any premium means a fund is pricey is another first-level blunder. With PIMCO funds, premiums—particularly big ones—are normal because of the company’s cachet in the CEF space.

Over the last five years, PTY has traded at a 20% (!) premium, on average. Take a look at this chart, showing its path to the bottom of the bargain bin:

PTY Is Cheaper Than It’s Been in 11 Years

This is a chart of PTY’s premium since its launch in 2002. As you can see, it’s cheaper than it’s been since 2015—and far cheaper than it was in 2022, when rates soared on the heels of an inflation rate that streaked to 9%!

Even the most extreme forecasts don’t put us near that today. And PTY’s overdone premium-drop, despite that fact, is the first reason why the fund looks attractive now.

Then there’s the dividend. As I write this, PTY pays 11.9 cents per share, per month, for a hefty 12.3% yield.

Other than a slight adjustment, from 13 cents to 11.9 during the pandemic, that payout held steady, with the odd special dividend (the spikes and dips in the chart below), too:


Source: Income Calendar

PTY generates that income by handing its managers a wide mandate to scour the credit markets. The result is a portfolio that’s 59% US-based and mostly in high-yield bonds (29% of assets), non-US developed markets (16%) and emerging markets (17%).

The team at the top has also focused on bonds with a leverage-adjusted duration of 4.2 years. That’s a good place to be—long enough to rise significantly as rates fall, but not so long as to hurt substantially if rates surprisingly head higher than expected.

As I just hinted at, the fund does juice its returns by borrowing against roughly 29% of its assets. That’s modest and, again, will provide a tailwind as rates fall and PTY’s borrowing costs decline.

And yes, I do still see lower rates in the longer run. Let’s talk about that more before we move on to another corporate-bond CEF we like even more than PTY.

On the Interest-Rate Front, AI Beats Iran

When it comes to rates (or anything in investing), things rarely go in a straight line.

Despite the recent escalation in Iran, this conflict will eventually draw to a close. None of the participants in the conflict can afford any other outcome. Then there’s Warsh, who, as I mentioned earlier, Trump has charged with cutting rates. You can bet that as soon as the data allows him to justify such a move, he’ll push for it.

Third (and more important) is AI, which provides a sweeping level of automation to white-collar work that is highly deflationary.

In the 1990s, the Internet acted as a similar “deflator” on prices. The move from snail mail to email and from fax machines to web browsers made businesses wildly more efficient, which kept a lid on consumer prices—and a floor under bond prices. They rallied throughout the decade.

If rate cuts happen sooner, great. The discount on a buy made today will snap shut, giving us price gains on top of our double-digit bond-fund payouts. If it takes longer, fine. We’ll collect our divvies in peace (since these funds are already cheap).

Which brings me to another bond CEF I see as a savvy “second-level” buy today.

The “Bond God’s” 10.1% Payout

The 10.1%-paying DoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund (DLY) is a holding of my Contrarian Income Report service that’s done exactly what we’ve wanted it to since we bought it in October 2021: deliver steady income.

The fund rolled down the skids at what would seem to be an inopportune time: February 2020, on the eve of the societal dumpster fire that was soon to ensue. But DLY’s manager, Jeffrey Gundlach (a.k.a. the “Bond God”) was the right manager for the time: He used the opportunity to snap up high-yielding bonds at discounts.

Since then, the fund’s dividend has been the picture of predictability, paying out steadily (and monthly) since launch, with two special dividends, to boot:


Source: Income Calendar

Then there’s the discount, which has also gotten cheaper over the last 16 months, dropping from a slight premium to a 7.7% markdown.

That’s way too cheap for a fund run by Gundlach, who’s got a wide mandate to scour the credit markets. The discount’s widening has also raised the yield to that sweet 10.1%.

DLY’s Discount Sends Its Dividend Higher

DLY, like PTY, is a textbook “Marks-style” contrarian play on today’s rate worries. We’re happy to grab this stout fund at a discount, and a historically high 10.1% payout, too.

This Ridiculously Cheap 12% Payer Is the “Perfect Pairing” for DLY

Let’s keep the payout party rolling by adding another fund that perfectly complements DLY. This one pays 12%, hands us payouts monthly and is also cheap, thanks to the investor temper tantrum over rates.

And take a look at this steady divvie:

Heck, it’s not just steady—it’s growing. So we’re left with a 12% payout that comes our way monthly, has grown, and regularly sends special payouts our way!

Many investors will tell you that such a thing simply can’t exist. Well, here’s the proof that they’re wrong. And with the world-class management team running this fund, we’ve got reassurance that they know how to weather any rate storm.

Since this one pays monthly, getting in now means our next payment is only a few short weeks (not months!) away.

5 investment trusts for your pension

Story by Holly Thomas

 5 investment trusts for your pension

5 investment trusts for your pension© Getty Images

The investments in your pension can have a huge bearing on the size of the pot of money you’ll end up with in retirement.

Investment trusts, while traditionally have been overlooked, are increasing in popularity and are some of the top picks for DIY investors.

Investment trusts can help generate income, deliver strong dividends, as well as give you exposure to private companies.

According to the Association of Investment Companies (AIC), an industry body that represents investment trusts, retail investors now own 26% of investment company shares, compared to 25% two years ago.

“Investment trusts are built for the long haul,” said Nadir Mirza of Tyndall Investment Management. “Pension capital demands patience, governance, and discipline – three qualities that sit at the core of well-run investment trusts.”

Investment trusts that focus on dividend-paying companies have always been a popular pick – and not just among income investors wanting a regular stream of income.

That income reinvested can be a significant boost for growth too. For example, in the UK reinvested dividends have made up around 67% of total returns over 20 years.

So when it comes to your self-invested personal pension (Sipp), which investment trusts should you add? Here’s what the experts say.

Investment trusts for your pension

1. JPMorgan Global Growth and Income (LON: JGGI)

If you are still building your pension – known as the accumulation stage – a global equity trust makes the most sense, says Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The JPMorgan Global Growth and Income trust is a good option, managed by Helge Skibeli who has more than 30 years’ experience, supported by two other managers in London and New York supported by analysts across various continents to help spot the best opportunities across the globe.”

The team looks for companies with attractive valuations, that offer significant potential for growth and are unlikely to suffer big share price volatility. The top 10 holdings will be familiar to investors. Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, The Walt Disney Co and Johnson & Johnson are among the largest positions.

Wall adds: “We like it because it has a core approach – neither growth or value biased – and a robust dividend policy paying out quarterly, which can be reinvested for accumulation or take an income for those already in retirement.

The trust has returned 62% over five years.

2. The Brunner Investment Trust (LON: BUT)

Pete Walls of Unicorn Asset Management favours trusts with greater geographical diversification and “a bit less of the Magnificent 7.”

“In the prevailing, highly concentrated, world market, I have reservations about the fact that many of the global trusts have such a large exposure to the USA,” he said.

“The Brunner Investment Trust styles itself as an ‘all weather’ global equity portfolio. It’s been around for almost 100 years so there’s a good chance it will continue to prosper for long-term pension investors.”

Some of the trust’s top 10 holdings include Microsoft, payments giant Visa, energy stock Totalenergies, chip-maker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and hotel group InterContinental Hotels.

“Despite having a lower weighting to the rampant US market than some of its peers, portfolio performance has been good,” added Walls.

While the dividend yield is a modest 1.7% it’s dividend has increased year on year for the last 53 years. The trust has returned 73% over five years.

3. The Law Debenture Corporation (LON: LWDB)

Investors who believe in a prosperous future for the UK might consider The Law Debenture Corporation, a trust suggested by Walls and Mirza.

The trust balances income stability with long-term growth potential, with around 83% in UK stocks.

Mirza said: “For a pension investor, it’s a compelling combination: dependable income, valuation discipline and genuine flexibility, underpinned by a structure designed to compound quietly over time.”

Its top 10 holdings include banking stocks HSBC and Barclays, car manufacturer Rolls Royce and mining firm Rio Tinto.

It has returned an impressive 100% over five years.

Walls added: “It’s been listed on the London Stock Exchange for more than 135 years, so once again it’s likely to be around for some time to come.”

4. Nippon Active Value Fund (LON: NAVF)

This trust targets Japanese small and mid-cap companies trading below intrinsic value.

“The Nippon Active Value fund is a timely expression of Japan’s long-overdue revival,” said Mirza. “After years of corporate inertia, Japan is finally embracing reform – balance sheets are leaner, governance is improving, and management teams are starting to prioritise shareholder returns. The fund’s activist approach fits this environment perfectly.”

Mirza added: “This hands-on strategy has delivered strong NAV growth in a market that remains deeply under-owned by global investors. For pension investors, this is the kind of exposure that adds genuine diversification and long-term alpha potential – an active, conviction-led play on one of the few major markets still trading at a structural discount to its own potential.”

Top 10 holdings include medical supplies firm Hogy Medical, media company Fuji Media Holdings and environment product manufacturer Ebara Jitsugyo.

The trust has returned 117% over five years.

5. Augmentum Fintech (LON: AUGM)

Should you wish to invest in a specific theme, you could plump for one such as Augmentum Fintech, suggests Dan Boardman-Weston, chief executive of BRI Wealth Management.

“This is a trust that may be suitable for those with a high appetite for risk and a long-term time horizon. It focuses on potential high-growth private companies in the fintech space.”

Augmentum has benefited from being a former shareholder in Interactive Investor. Its top 10 holdings include Tide, which operates banking services for small businesses and online challenger bank Zopa.

Augmentum trades at nearly a 50% discount to the value of its assets. The fund has lost 34% over five years.

“Those with a good appetite for risk and appropriate time horizon should consider a small position as part of a diversified portfolio,” Boardman-Weston added.

How to choose an investment trust for your pension

If you’re considering an investment trust for your pension then there are several things to help with your decision on whether to invest.

“First decide how much risk you want to take, and where in the world you want to invest,” said Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell. “Then it’s a question of comparing investment strategies and manager track records, as well as considering costs.”

What a trust invests in is crucial. The top 10 holdings and percentage of the trust’s value held in each company is typically easy to find on a factsheet, which is a document provided by the investment company and refreshed regularly.

You can view them online directly from the fund management company or on an investment platform such as AJ Bell or Hargreaves Lansdown.

Understanding a trust’s strategy is important. “You’ll want to understand how the fund manager aims to deliver a strong return over time without taking too much risk in any one area,” said Nick Britton, research director of the AIC.

“It can be useful to look at the trust’s record – though it does not guarantee future returns – and how it has performed in various market conditions. Investment trusts can borrow to invest, which can boost long-term growth but also adds risk, so check the trust’s current level of borrowing – known as gearing – and borrowing policies so you know how much extra market exposure you may be taking on.”

“As you get closer to retirement, capital preservation may become more important to you. At this time, many people think about reducing their weighting to equities, and there are some trusts that aim to preserve wealth by spreading your investment over assets like equities, bonds, alternatives and cash.”

Since investment trusts typically trade at either a premium or discount to their net asset value (NAV), based on the balance of supply and demand, you should take a look at the discount or premium on the trust.

Khalaf added: “This shouldn’t be a major decision driver for long term investors, unless it’s deviated substantially from the norm.”

Six technology and innovation investment trusts to consider

Investment trusts can be one of the most effective means of investing in high-growth sectors like tech. These six trusts can offer you exposure.

By Dan McEvoy

Published 5 days ago

abstract people stand among multiple glowing holographic screens displaying complex financial charts and stock market Data representing tech investment trusts
(Image credit: J Studios via Getty Images)

Jump to category:

Technology, and its ever-present subsector artificial intelligence (AI), are perhaps the hottest topics in investment – and have been for several years.

Information technology officially accounts for 32% of the MSCI ACWI Index. Yet in reality, what we’d all intuitively think of as ‘tech’ companies account for a greater proportion of this, since MSCI officially designates companies like Alphabet, AmazonMeta and Tesla into industry sectors other than information technology.

This concentration brings risks with it. Passive tracker funds act to condense stock markets into the biggest names, and investors therefore run the risk of being over-exposed to the sector – which can exhibit volatility when times get tough.

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There is also the intensely competitive nature of tech growth to contend with. Nascent, disruptive technologies like AI can create as many losers as winners, if not more. Knowing which stocks to invest in can be difficult, even for the professionals.

An investment trust – which is by definition actively managed – has the potential to mitigate some of these risks, and the vehicles offer some structural advantages too.

“The closed-ended nature of investment trusts makes them well-suited to technology investing,” said Alex Trett, investment trust research analyst at Winterflood Securities.

“The permanent capital allows managers to take a genuinely long-term approach, supporting investments in private companies and giving them the patience to see investment theses play out over time.

“The structure can also facilitate exposure to smaller-cap technology businesses, where liquidity can be a constraint for other investment vehicles. In addition, it enables managers to build concentrated, high-conviction portfolios, allowing them to express their strongest investment ideas.

Here’s six of the best-known investment trusts that can offer you exposure to some of the world’s most innovative technology companies.

Scottish Mortgage

Just as many ‘big tech’ companies aren’t designated tech, one of the biggest investment trusts that many people think of as ‘tech-focused’ isn’t actually a technology trust.

Scottish Mortgage (LON:SMT) aims to own “the world’s most exceptional public and private growth companies”. As it happens, a lot of these are tech companies, but the trust emphasises that its focus is on long-term growth potential, whatever sector that may be in.

Still, buy Scottish Mortgage now and you’ll get a lot of tech. As of 30 June, SpaceX accounted for over 25% of the portfolio, followed by Taiwan Semiconductor (6.4%), Nvidia (5.0%) and TikTok’s owner Bytedance (4.2%).

ByteDance and, until recently, SpaceX have exemplified part of the appeal of SMT: its ability to hold private companies alongside publicly listed ones, tapping into the future growth potential they offer. The heavy weighting towards SpaceX is largely a consequence of this and its recent initial public offering (IPO); Trett expects the position to be trimmed once lock-up periods permit.

SymbolMarket cap (£ million)Discount / premium (%)1yr share price return (%)10 yr share price return (%)Dividend yield (%)
SMT17,009-8.527.8403.00.34

Source: Association of Investment Companies, as of 21/07/26.

Polar Capital Technology

Polar Capital (LON:PCT) has focused its approach on the hardware and infrastructure underpinning the buildout of artificial intelligence (AI).

“The managers believe these areas offer greater earnings visibility and forecastability, with semiconductors representing the largest exposure at 44% of the portfolio, followed by equipment, components and storage including Advanced Micro Devices and LAM Research,” said Trett.

SymbolMarket cap (£ million)Discount / premium (%)1yr share price return (%)10 yr share price return (%)Dividend yield (%)
PCT7,233-9.262.6847.20.0

Source: Association of Investment Companies, as of 21/07/26.

Allianz Technology Trust

All of these trusts are listed in the UK, but Allianz Technology (LON:ATT) is distinctive in having its management team based in San Francisco, giving it close access to many of the companies in its portfolio – approximately 90% of which is allocated to North America, as of 30 June.

“The portfolio provides broad exposure across the technology and AI ecosystem,” said Trett.

“The managers have highlighted the role of technology in creating differentiation across a wide range of industries [and] believe the AI opportunity is continuing to broaden beyond the initial infrastructure buildout, supporting a more diversified and durable phase of growth across the technology sector”.

SymbolMarket cap (£ million)Discount / premium (%)1yr share price return (%)10 yr share price return (%)Dividend yield (%)
ATT2,582-8.849.6875.10.0

Source: Association of Investment Companies, as of 21/07/26.

Schiehallion

Like Scottish Mortgage, Schiehallion (LON:MNTN) is managed by Baillie Gifford and, depending on how pedantic you’re feeling, isn’t technically a technology investment trust.

But it has an interesting focus on early-stage companies – even more so than SMT, given that it invests in later-stage private companies.

“While not a dedicated technology fund, technology represents around 47% of the portfolio, with holdings including Anthropic, Bending Spoons, SpaceX, ByteDance and Databricks,” said Trett.

SymbolMarket cap (£ million)Discount / premium (%)1yr share price return (%)10 yr share price return (%)Dividend yield (%)
MNTN2,031.67-15.3769.0N/A0.0

Source: Association of Investment Companies, as of 21/07/26.

Herald Investment Trust

Again, Herald Investment Trust (LON:HRI) technically belongs in the Global Smaller Companies category, but it has a strong focus on technology and communications companies.

It was the subject of a bid from Saba Capital Management to displace its board, which led to a tender offer and for the trust to become part of Aberdeen.

Trett picks out Super Micro Computer, BE Semiconductor Industries, Celestica and Fabrinet as among its key holdings.

SymbolMarket cap (£ million)Discount / premium (%)1yr share price return (%)10 yr share price return (%)Dividend yield (%)
HRI565.46-11.321.7305.10.0

Source: Association of Investment Companies, as of 21/07/26.

Manchester and London

Some people use investment trusts to diversify away from big tech concentration. Manchester & London (LON:MNL) is an investment trust for people that want to lean into it.

The fund takes a concentrated approach to investing and predominantly holds large-cap stocks, with AI a high-conviction play for the managers.

“The fund’s concentrated portfolio allows it to hold significant positions in its preferred ideas; Nvidia represented 43.6% of net assets in January before being subsequently reduced to 9.0% as at 30 June,” said Trett.

SymbolMarket cap (£ million)Discount / premium (%)1yr share price return (%)10 yr share price return (%)Dividend yield (%)
MNL498.75-25.2919.0429.42.9

Source: Association of Investment Companies, as of 21/07/26.

Where to invest in Q3 2026?

Four experts have their say

Our asset allocation panel share their views on the areas where they are bullish and bearish.

22nd July 2026

by Jim Levi from interactive investor

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the fastest-adopted technology in history. Worth a mere $95 billion (£70 billion) just five years ago, it is projected to be worth $1800 billion by the end of the decade and perhaps $4800 billion by 2033. No wonder then that AI – and the investment opportunities and pitfalls it may create – is much on the minds of our panel of four fund managers.

The so-called Magnificent Seven stocks – Apple Inc AAPLAmazon.com Inc  AMZNAlphabet Inc Class A GOOGL (Google), Microsoft Corp MSFTMeta Platforms Inc Class A METANVIDIA Corp NVDA and Tesla Inc TSLA – are all heavily involved and they make up about one-third of the total value of Wall Street’s S&P 500 Index.

But the impact of AI is global and in relative terms it is making an even bigger impact on equities in emerging markets – particularly Taiwan and South Korea. This has led to the creation of a new list of seven leading stocks called the Semiconductor Seven – all of them quoted in Far East markets – and led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd ADR  TSM

 Samsung Electronics Co Ltd DR  SMSN

and SK hynix Inc ADR SKHY

These companies whose customers include the Magnificent Seven in the US are already making large profits out of supplying chips for AI.

Has Big Tech overspent on AI?

But there are question marks over the huge costs of building the data centres for AI and how profitable the business might be for the likes of Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft.

According to Rob Burdett at Nedgroup Investments, AI “has created a huge cloud of uncertainty and the market is reacting accordingly”.  The stock market ratings for the likes of Amazon, Microsoft and Nvidia are now cheaper than those of low tech stocks such as Coca-Cola HBC AG  CCH and McDonald’s Corp  MCD

He points out that the cash flows of the Magnificent Seven at the end of last year was $300 billion and is now nearer $50 billion because of the heavy investment in data centres.

“The amount of money being spent on data centres for AI has overtaken all the money being spent on commercial property in the US,” Burdett claims.

Where does that leave the stance of our panel of four fund managers on Wall Street?  As usual, our scorecard shows a mixed reaction. Burdett himself has lowered his score for US equities from seven to five. “Back in April I raised my US equities score from four to seven and that worked well,” he says. “But at this point I don’t want to be overweight Wall Street.”

At Schroders Dorian Carrell supports Burdett’s caution taking his score down from six to four. “We think there is better value elsewhere,” he says.

David Coombs at Rathbones takes the opposite route in raising his score for US equities from six to eight. “I think we will start to see the market begin to anticipate a cut in American interest rates early next year,” he says. “Meanwhile, there is a widening of interest in smaller US companies and in stocks outside the Magnificent Seven.”

But even he admits he cannot dodge the central question: “Is AI going to make money for those leading companies or is it going to prove too costly?”

Emerging market enthusiasm wanes

The overall mood of caution among the panel members is reflected in rising cash scores. Burdett was already scoring eight but both Coombs and Carrell have boosted their cash score to five. “We all remember that the autumn is a favourite time for big stock market corrections,” Burdett warns.

Craig Hoyda, investment director at Aberdeen standing in again for Max Macmillan, makes only one change in his equities scores by going from an overweight seven to a neutral five on emerging markets. “We have seen incredible volatility in Asian markets – particularly Taiwan and South Korea, which now dominate the emerging markets space,” he says.

“This volatility and concentration on just a few dominant AI-related stocks makes us cautious.”

Coombs is even more cautious, lowering his emerging markets score from seven to four and even Carrell who scored a nine for the sector back in April has edged his score slightly lower to eight. Overall, the average score for emerging market equities is down from 7.5 to 6. Carrell himself is suggesting a recovering Chinese economy may take up some of the running in the sector in the coming weeks. “Overall, we think emerging markets will continue to do well,” he says. 

Views on UK, Europe and Japan

There is a two-way pull going on in UK equities. On the one hand, there is a steady stream of foreign bids for leading UK companies – 

Tate & Lyle  TATE

 Schroders  SDR

easyJet EZJ and a big chunk of ITV  ITV among them – which indicate that in the eyes of overseas investors at least our domestic equity market looks cheap. 

On the other hand is the reality of a sluggish economy and continued uncertainty about the plans of the new Andy Burnham government. Three of the four panel members score a neutral five. Carrell says: “The noises we have heard so far from the Burnham camp do not indicate plans that are constructed for long-term growth. And that is what the country needs.”

Only Coombs is underweight in European equities –  lowering his score from four to three with his concerns that Chinese competition is damaging German car manufacturing, but Burdett keeps his score at eight. “Our positive view is about the revival of the German economy through extra defence spending and European equities are certainly not expensive compared with US shares,” he says.

Again Coombs is the odd man out in Japanese shares leaving his score an underweight four. Burdett, a long-term bull of Japan lowers his score from eight to seven, while both Aberdeen’s Hoyda and Carrell at Schroders keep their scores at seven. The one blot on the Japanese equities landscape is the continued weakness of the yen against the dollar. “Our score would be higher if the Bank of Japan took some action and the weakness of the currency ended,” says Carrell.

Hoyda makes an intriguing prediction that UK interest rates will be reduced by the end of the year and in anticipation he has raised his UK bonds score from five to seven. Other panel members are less confident that inflation will be more under control by then but there are no other changes in scores for either UK or global government bonds.

However, Hoyda has some indirect support for his belief that lower inflation and lower interest rates may soon be on the way from Burdett, who tops up his score for gold to eight. “Central banks are still buying gold and lower interest rates would be good news for the yellow metal,” he says.

Corporate bonds remain the lowest-scoring sector although Coombs has decided to double his score from one to two. “We recently bought one AAA-rated corporate bond,” he says.

One final positive note is that although the battle between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz rumbles on, all the panel members agree that the impact it has so far had on energy supplies and inflation has not been as bad so far this summer as had been feared. That has kept markets upbeat, with overweight positions in both equities and government bonds for the most part being maintained. Overall, the mood seems to be one of subdued optimism.

Asset allocation scorecard July 2026

Note: the scorecard is a snapshot of views for the third quarter of 2026. How the panellists’ views have changed since the second quarter of 2026: red circle = less positive, green circle = more positive. Key to scorecard: EM equities = emerging market equities. 1 = poor, 5 = neutral and 9 = excellent.

Panellist profiles

Rob Burdett is head of multi-manager with Nedgroup Investments.

Dorian Carrell is head of multi-asset income at Schroders.

David Coombs is head of multi-asset investments at Rathbones.

Max Macmillan is head of strategic asset allocation at Aberdeen.

XD Dates this week.

Thursday 30 July

Alternative Income REIT PLC ex-dividend date
BlackRock Smaller Cos Trust PLC ex-dividend date
Brunner Investment Trust PLC ex-dividend date
CQS New City High Yield Fund Ltd ex-dividend date
Ecofin Global Utilities & Infrastructure Trust PLC ex-dividend date
European Smaller Cos Trust PLC ex-dividend date
GCP Asset Backed Income Fund Ltd ex-dividend date
Gore Street Energy Storage Fund PLC ex-dividend date
Henderson Far East Income Ltd ex-dividend date
M&G Credit Income Investment Trust PLC ex-dividend date
Montanaro European Smaller Cos Trust PLC ex-dividend date


Market Technicals

Second Largest Negative Signal Of 2026: Bubbles, Barrels, And Skew

Jul 26, 2026, 6:13 AM ETS&P 500 Index (SP500)SPXDJINDXSPYDIAQQQIVVVOOIWMAAPLMSFTAMZNMETASKHYGDXUKORUSOXLMUINTCZMET:CAZMIC:CAZINT:CAZMSF:CAZAAP:CAMU:CAMSFT:CAMETA:CAINTC:CAAMZN:CAAAPL:CA

JD Henning

Investing Group Leader

Summary

  • Market timing is critical; current momentum gauges signal elevated risk and negative flows since the July 10th S&P 500 high.
  • Semiconductor sector, including SOXL and MU, shows classic topping patterns with steep declines despite record earnings, raising valuation concerns.
  • Oil price volatility and geopolitical events are driving inflation and increasing pressure on the Fed for a possible rate hike.
  • Extreme S&P 500 PEG ratios and high leverage signal caution; proven value and momentum models, along with timing indicators, are essential for capital preservation.
  • The Federal Reserve rate decision and guidance this week will be key as pressure rises to hike rates again and 751 stocks report earnings including Apple and Microsoft.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Value & Momentum Breakouts. 
Funny brown bear say Hi in a zoo
Azahara Falcon/iStock via Getty Images

Introduction

As “bandwagon” investors join any party, they create their own truth – for a while. ~ Warren Buffett

Timing matters, and it matters greatly. I have spent the last 35 years trading, researching, and constructing algorithms to identify and leverage the value across fundamental, technical, and behavioral finance models. Of the ten portfolio models designed for optimal portfolio mixes for members to beat the market at Value & Momentum Breakouts, eight come from enhancing well-tested anomaly research in published financial journals. All of the models continue to outperform the S&P 500 in live forward testing for nearly 10 years here on Seeking Alpha, and again this year.

The 2nd Negative Signal of the Year

Readers who follow my Momentum Gauge indicators know well that timing matters and protecting your capital is a valuable way to preserve time on your way to building wealth.

On the weekly S&P 500 gauges we have gone through 3 weeks of negative signals from the July 10th market high down a modest -2.41% so far. The three prior negative signals on the weekly chart back to February 2025 saw declines of:

  • Feb 28 to Apr 25: S&P 500 declined -9.69%
  • Nov 14 to Nov 21: S&P 500 declined -2.72%
  • Jan 30 to Apr 2: S&P 500 declined -6.53%
vmbreakouts.com S&P 500 momentum gauges
S&P 500 Momentum Gauges (Value & Momentum Breakouts )

Even prior to the signal, you can see the positive momentum has been declining for past 8 weeks in an early indicator that outflows from the market are increasing as investors become more cautious. For context, the two strongest positive signals occurred back in April 2025 when the tariff tantrum abated on news that many tariffs would be withdrawn and in April 2026 when it was announced Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. That ceasefire ended back on July 6th and the gauges subsequently turned negative again.

Bubbles, Barrels, And Skew

As we begin the third quarter of 2026 we have already seen some major patterns that are likely to continue the whipsaws across different sectors and investment portfolios. 751 stocks are reporting earnings next week including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), SK hynix (SKHY) representing over $14 trillion in market cap. Additionally the Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday for their last rate decision until September and pressure is mounting for another hike. This is likely to be a volatile week.

I. Bubbles

Sometimes bubbles leak and sometimes they pop. One of technical indicators of bubbles is that they eventually return to pre-hype price levels where nearly everyone finally agrees the massive gains were part of shorter term overpricing anomaly. One of the most popular charts in circulation shows some of the sensational market bubbles in history.

Stock Market Bubble or Bull Market? History Offers 17 Clues | Advisorpedia
BofA Global Investment Strategy

Just this year we have seen some incredibly large bubble moves. Take for example Gold as shown in the MicroSectors Gold Miners ETN (GDXU) weekly chart below. Back in January as Gold prices touched on all time highs above $5,500/oz, headlines announced “the end of fiat currencies” and a clarion call for “everyone to get into gold now!”

GDXU Gold bull fund
Finviz

More recently we have seen this classic Head/Shoulder topping pattern emerge in the South Korean market represented by Direxion Daily MSCI South Korea Bull 3x ETF (KORU) with over 40% of its holdings in SK hynix (SKHY) and Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) stock. Tragically, many investors are down nearly -72.1% from the June 1st high.

KORU Korea bull fund
Finviz

A illustrative primer on the classic technical pattern of Head and Shoulders is shown below for both bullish and bearish indicators.

Mastering the Trend Reversal Trading Strategy - OpoFinance
Trend Reversal Trading Strategy

There are quite a few more topping signals of sectors this year like Silver, Cotton, Palladium to name a few. However the most consequential for the equity markets is arguably the Semiconductors segment. Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull ETF (SOXL) shown below reflects over $12 trillion market cap in the semiconductor sector. This fund is down -54.7% from the June 22nd peak with risk of further declines as it approaches a key test of support at $130/share.

SOXL semiconductor bull fund head/shoulder topping pattern
Finviz

This pattern is especially evident within the Semiconductor sector looking at the Micron Technology (MU) chart up +222% YTD with record earnings and sales. How can a stock with such good earnings and sales growth be suffering such large declines? We will look at that in more detail in the “Skew” section of this article below.

MU head/shoulder topping pattern
Finviz

Using the multiple discriminant analysis MDA chart below of Micron, we are keeping a close eye on when key variables indicate it may be safe to return to this fantastic company in the days ahead.

Micron Technology daily MDA chart

Micron MDA chart
Micron MDA chart (Value & Momentum Breakouts )

II. Barrels

One of the most significant and unpredictable economic factors this year is the price of oil. Oil prices can drive significant short term inflation and why fuel costs are excluded from Core CPI focused on long term predictive measures. Nevertheless the rising inflation rates from February to May were largely a product of increasing delivery, travel and production costs related to oil prices.

Core CPI inflation
Core CPI (Trading Economics)

We have seen exceptionally strong stock market moves from the start of April when the US/Iran Ceasefire was announced. There have also been significant declines in inflation along with the recent decline in oil prices. However, since the termination of this fragile ceasefire on July 6th not only have oil prices rallied by +34% in July but we have seen approximately -7.2% declines in the Nasdaq in the same period.

Crude Oil WTI with notes
Finviz

As inflationary concerns rise again in the short term, we are seeing additional pressures on the Fed to raise rates at their July 29th FOMC meeting. The odds of a rate hike have increased to 34.2% according to the CME Fedwatch tool.

Fedwatch probability tool
CME Group

While the Energy sector gauges are positive with five weeks of rising positive MG values and declining negative momentum, we cannot be certain when another exogenous shock related to Iran will occur with escalating attacks or an abrupt ceasefire.

Energy momentum gauges
Energy Sector Gauges (Value & Momentum Breakouts)

III. Skew

Lastly, as I wrote in my 2026 forecast article “Chasing Bubbles and Riding Value in Another Year Leading the S&P 500” the Buffett indicator was at the highest valuations in over 75 years and still increasing.

Buffett Indicator
Current Market Valuation

Fast forward another 6 months and we can see more clearly the extremes of the current skew as measured by the equal-weighted to market-cap-weighted stocks in the S&P 500. This represents the highest concentration into the fewest mega cap stocks in the index since 2004.

S&P 500 skew ratio equal weight to market cap weight
Yardeni

Ok we have seen these charts before, “but this time it’s different!” This time I’m told the record growth and the massive Intel Corp. (INTC) earnings beat deserve to be even higher in price than ever before.

Intel Corp MDA chart
Intel MDA chart (Value & Momentum Breakouts)

The challenge is not that these phenomenal semiconductor stocks fail to produce record earnings and sales every quarter. The basic concern underlying the current weakness is whether the current prices have gone too high too fast relative to the very best growth estimates.

To better explain what I mean let’s look at the S&P 500 Price to Long Term Earnings Growth ratio. The most recent weekly chart for July shows the most extreme S&P 500 PEG ratio in at least 30 years. So unlike 2020 in the middle of COVID, the prices being paid to own the S&P 500 are the most expensive in many decades relative to the best expected growth. Other charts suggest investors are also the most leveraged in the stock market that they have been in many years.

S&P 500 PEG ratio
Yardeni

While it is easy to make a case that the semiconductor giants are delivering earnings results that almost no one has ever seen before, so too are the prices relative to incredible growth estimates. We will see how long they can continue to sustain at these levels even when delivering such positive long term outlooks.

So as we analyze Technology, the largest and most heavily weighted sector on the Major Indices (SPY) (QQQ), we are seeing clear trends in the momentum gauges. For the past 34 trading days from June 5th these sector gauges have been negative. They also reflect a volatile trend of rising negative momentum toward prior peaks at March and February market lows.

Technology Momentum Gauges
Technology sector gauges (Value & Momentum Breakouts )

The best time to be in the market this year was clearly between April and June, according to the Technology gauges. While this is certainly no guarantee that the negative momentum will match or exceed prior market pullbacks the market risks are extremely elevated.

Conclusion

My main conclusion is to be careful chasing the AI exuberance. Consider some long term proven models from the financial literature that I have tested live on Seeking Alpha going on 10 years. Use timing indicators to minimize downturn losses and preserve capital as you build wealth.

How to turn a £20,000 ISA into a £20-a-day passive income stream

Does earning regular passive income seem out of your grasp? Break it down to a simple, step-by-step plan, and it’s not so daunting after all.

Posted by Mark Hartley

Published 26 July

CTY

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Twelfth Magpie’s Premium Investing Services.

You might think £20 a day is a bit of a weak passive income stream. But over a year, that’s an extra £7,300 of spare cash earned while you sleep. That would go a long way to covering a mortgage, building a retirement pot, or just funding an extravagant holiday.

So how can a UK investor build such an income?

Aiming for optimal growth

If you don’t already have a Stocks and Shares ISA, that’s a smart first step. Invest up to £20,000 a year in shares, ETFs or bonds without paying any tax on the capital gains or dividends. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice. Readers are responsible for carrying out their own due diligence and for obtaining professional advice before making any investment decisions.

Next, decide how much you need to invest each month depending on your timeline. For example, a 6%-yielding portfolio of dividend shares worth £121,666 could pay out £7,300 a year. Push that yield up to 7% and you’d need just £104,285.

Okay, it isn’t a small amount – but it’s achievable.

Let’s say you already have £10,000 in savings and put in an extra £300 a month. Stick to the plan, reinvest all dividends, and it could take 14-15 years.

Too long? Pump up your monthly contributions to £500 and it could take just 10 years. And that’s using a conservative annual total return of just 7%. Catch a few good years and hit a 9% average, that drops to just nine years.

That’s a short time period to build a big enough portfolio to earn decent income. But what’s the chances an average investor could pull that off? It all comes down to stock selection.

Picking top-quality shares

There’s a popular phrase: “past performance is not indicative of future results“. While this is certainly true, history still has a place. I’m more likely to trust a stock that’s been paying dividends for 20 years, than one that’s been paying for two years.

Any company can cut dividends at any time. Sometimes, it’s a necessary evil — if profits dip, cash must be preserved. But, ideally, they find ways to continue paying dividends no matter what — this builds trust, and attracts further investment. And the best are those that have grown dividends consistently. A solid, consistently-growing stock with a 4% yield can beat an unsustainable 7% yield over the long run.

For example, City of London Investment Trust (LSE:CTY) is a diversified fund that holds top FTSE 100 shares such as HSBCShellBritish American TobaccoNatWest, and Lloyds.

It currently yields around 3.9%, which is impressive when you consider it’s raised the dividend every year since 1966! That’s the longest unbroken growth record of any UK investment trust.

Naturally, its heavy exposure to the UK market puts it at risk. This is most evident in 2008 and 2020, when the price fell around 30%. If falling interest rates hurt bank profits, or an economic downturn hits UK-listed mega-caps, the share price could drop again.

Still, it’s risen at an annualised rate of 4.13% over the past 20 years. So when combined with the dividend, investors could expect an average total return a year of about 8%.

When combined with a few higher-yielding shares like Legal & General, that average would likely rise.

Today’s Quest

Rhea
cn-s15lol-qq.comx
WileyCraigwell@gmail.com
104.207.57.24
Superb website you have here but I was curious if you knew of any message boards that cover the same topics talked about here? I’d really like to be a part of group where I can get feed-back from other knowledgeable people that share the same interest. If you have any recommendations, please let me know. Cheers!

You can follow and participate in discussions about shares on platforms like London South East and ADVFN, where investors share news, opinions, and trading insights.

Also CityWire forums.

Gilts

You may have read if you buy UK Government Gilts, you will not lose money.

If you bought and held to maturity in 2021, you have broke even but after allowing for inflation you have lost money.

Whereas if you bought in 2023, you are better off, even allowing for inflation.

There would have been a small amount of coupon interest paid but it is not material.

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