Henderson Far East to replace Just Group on FTSE 250 effective Apr 1

City of London Investment Trust (CTY)17 March 2026

Disclaimer

Disclosure – Non-Independent Marketing Communication

This is a non-independent marketing communication commissioned by City of London Investment Trust (CTY). The report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on the dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

Overview Overview Analyst’s

CTY’s 60th year of dividend increases, a first for the trust sector.

Overview

City of London Investment Trust (CTY) is approaching a landmark this year: the potential delivery of its 60th consecutive year of Dividend growth, a record unmatched in the investment trust sector. This consistency has been a hallmark of the strategy under Job Curtis, who has managed the trust since 1991, alongside deputy manager David Smith, appointed in 2021.

The trust’s durability stems from a conservative, balanced approach to portfolio construction, combining higher-yielding stocks with companies capable of stronger long-term capital and dividend growth. Ensuring a diversified income pool has helped smooth earnings over time, whilst the investment trust structure provides an extra buffer through revenue reserves, tapped during lean periods such as the COVID-induced disruptions in 2020.

This disciplined approach has supported long-term returns and recent Performance, despite market volatility. Over the 12 months to 12/03/2026, CTY delivered NAV and share price total returns of 25.9% and 28.3%, respectively, outpacing the FTSE All-Share Index. Returns were bolstered by several high-conviction holdings, including NatWest Group and Phoenix Group Holdings, alongside strategic underweights elsewhere.

The managers have also increased the Portfolio’s exposure to selected UK REITs, where signs of stabilising demand and improving rental growth are emerging, including via a new position in Big Yellow Group. The property sector has faced headwinds from higher interest rates, but CTY has leveraged market weakness to acquire high-quality assets trading at substantial discounts to underlying values.

Having traded at a Discount in early April 2025, CTY sharply returned to more familiar premium territory and currently trades at a small premium of around 0.6%, in line with its five-year average.

Analyst’s View

Few UK equity income strategies can match the long-term consistency of CTY, in our view. Under Job’s stewardship, the trust has quietly compounded income and capital for more than three decades, comfortably ahead of the broader UK market. This year’s potential 60th consecutive dividend increase would further cement CTY’s status as the pre-eminent AIC Dividend Hero, a testament to the resilience of its underlying portfolio, prudent use of revenue reserves, and the managers’ long-term disciplined approach.

We also like the trust’s commitment to a traditional dividend model. Payments are expected to come from revenue, rather than realised capital gains, a discipline that matters in weaker markets, where investors may be seldom keen to receive income funded by their own capital. This focus on earnings-driven dividends should, therefore, provide a more dependable foundation for long-term income growth. The current yield, modestly above the FTSE All-Share Index, is attractive but remains sensitive to interest-rate shifts; a rise in rates could again temper demand for higher-yield investment trusts, as investors return to favouring lower-risk cash and gilt options, as we saw in 2022 and 2023.

Looking more broadly, however, we think the UK market remains compelling. Despite strong recent returns, it is still under-owned globally, and valuations are reasonable relative to many international peers. Persistent inbound M&A activity suggests overseas buyers recognise the value of UK assets, reinforcing the opportunity set. In this context, CTY offers a pragmatic route to access the UK market’s potential through a diversified portfolio of established, cash-generative businesses, at the lowest ongoing Charge in the AIC UK Equity Income sector.

Bull

• Lowest OCF in the AIC UK Equity Income sector
• Consistency and experience of manager who has delivered long-term outperformance of the FTSE All-Share Index in capital and income terms
• A near six-decade-long track record of growing the dividend

Bear

• Cautious approach means that NAV can underperform in some market conditions
• Income track record highly attractive, so manager might risk long-term capital growth in trying to maintain it
• Structural gearing can exacerbate the downside

---

Dividends re-invested £1.52 > £19.77

From his book How to Make Money in Stocks, he lists twenty one costly mistakes, which I will post over the next few weeks.

Temple Bar Investment Trust Plc – Annual Financial Report for the year ended 31 December 2025

20th March 2026

Temple Bar Investment Trust Plc

Annual Financial Report for the year ended 31 December 2025

London, 20 March 2026 – Temple Bar Investment Trust Plc (LSE:TMPL), the UK-listed investment company that focuses on intrinsic value and long-term growth by investing primarily in UK-listed securities, has today announced annual results for the year ended 31 December 2025.

Highlights:

• Net Asset Value (“NAV”) total return with debt at fair value of +33.9% (2024: +19.9%) once again exceeding the Benchmark, the FTSE All-Share Index, which delivered +24.0% (2024: +9.5%)
• Share price total return of +45.3%, (2024: +19.1%)
• Dividend of 15 pence per ordinary share – an increase of 33.3% (2024: 11.25 pence), representing a yield of 4%
• The Company’s market capitalisation is £1.1bn at the time of writing, up from £776m at the start of 2025

Charles Cade, Chairman of Temple Bar Investment Trust comments:

“2025 was another strong year for the Company’s performance, both in absolute terms and relative to the FTSE All-Share Index, the Company’s benchmark. The Net Asset Value total return with debt at fair value was +33.9% and the share price total return was +45.3%, compared with a total return of +24.0% for the Benchmark.

“Returns were primarily driven by stock selection rather than broader market movements, reflecting the Portfolio Manager’s focus on company fundamentals, valuation discipline and active engagement with investee companies.

“The Board continues to monitor the Company’s net revenue position closely and, based on the latest forecasts, expects to maintain a progressive dividend policy with future annual dividends increasing over time. It is the Board’s current intention to increase the quarterly dividends to 3.90p per share in 2026 (2025: 3.75p per share), an increase of 4.0% on 2025, representing an annualised dividend yield of 4.3%, based on the share price at the time of writing.  

I am pleased to report that 2025 was another strong year for the Company’s performance, both in absolute terms and relative to the FTSE All-Share Index, the Company’s benchmark. The Net Asset Value total return with debt at fair value was +33.9% and the share price total return was +45.3%, compared with a total return of +24.0% for the Benchmark.

Since Redwheel took over the management of the Company’s portfolio at the end of October 2020, the Net Asset Value total return to the end of 2025 has been +199.8% compared with +103.7% for the Benchmark, representing outperformance of 8.9% per annum.

Dividend and Dividend Policy

Total dividends for the year amounted to 15.00p per share (2024: 11.25p per share), an increase of 33.3% and representing a yield of 4.0% at the year end.

The Board continues to monitor the Company’s net revenue position closely and, based on the latest forecasts, expects to maintain a progressive dividend policy with future annual dividends increasing over time. However, the pace of this growth is unlikely to match the significant increases seen in the past few years which have been partly due to a strong recovery in underlying dividends post-COVID, but also reflect a change in the Company’s distribution policy.

Last year, the Board recognised that many listed companies have been altering the nature of their distributions to shareholders, with substantial growth in the level of share buybacks either alongside or instead of dividends. According to Computershare’s UK Dividend Monitor, share buybacks represented 42.1% of the total distributions by UK listed companies in 2025. Unlike dividends, share buybacks by portfolio companies are not recognised as revenue in your Company’s accounts. Reflecting this, shareholder authority was obtained at the last AGM to amend the Company’s dividend policy to enhance the dividend it pays from its net revenue by using our capital reserve

Outlook

It would be easy for investors to take fright given the uncertain macro-economic and geopolitical outlook. In the UK, economic growth remains anaemic, with a rising tax burden on businesses and renewed inflationary fears following the recent surge in energy prices. It is worth recognising, though, that the Company’s performance is not closely correlated to the health of the UK economy. Indeed, the Portfolio Manager estimates that only approximately 35% of the underlying revenue of portfolio companies comes from the UK. In part, this reflects the global nature of many UK listed companies, particularly in the Oil and Mining sectors, but it is also a result of the Company’s exposure of up to 30% in businesses listed overseas.

Dividends per Share

It remains the Directors’ intention to distribute, over time, by way of four quarterly dividends, substantially all of the Company’s net revenue income after expenses and taxation. Further, an additional 3.0p per share per annum (0.75p per share per quarter) is currently paid using the Company’s capital reserves.

The Portfolio Manager aims to maximise total returns from the portfolio. The Company has paid dividends totalling 15.0p   per ordinary share for the year ended 31 December 2025 (2024: 11.25p), representing a dividend yield of 4.0% at the year-end (2024: 4.1%). The Board hopes to continue sustainable dividend growth over the coming years supported by the use of the Company’s capital reserves. Further information can be found in the Chair’s Statement.

TMPL

Quote

“There are two emotions in the market fear and greed, the problem is we hope when we should fear and fear when we should hope.”

Or

We hope with a losing position that Mr. Market will make good our mistakes.

We fear that Mr. Market will take away part or all of our profit.

If you bought from the chart, you missed the first part of the reversal but you could have traded most of the rally. After such strong price action, you wouldn’t have needed much persuasion to take all or part profits.

You may have to wait quite a long time to see such a strong chart.

You can only get in at the bottom of a rally and out at the top by luck, so don’t waste too much mental energy beating yourself up when you don’t.

With a cloud chart, generally if the price is above the cloud the sun is shining on your trade.

In the cloud watch to see which way it breaks.

Below the cloud, it’s raining on your parade.

Mr. Market to stay in business ensures nothing works all the time.

The plan for the SNOWBALL for the new financial year starting soon is £10,500 and the fcast is £10,500

The income for the SNOWBALL for this financial year will be £13,738, the amount includes some special dividends so it’s unlikely to be equalled this year.

The SNOWBALL has a comparator share VWRP where the 4% rule is applied. Current value £146,469, despite losing £11,318 from its recent high, still not too shabby.

Applying the 4% rule, after allowing for a 3 year cash buffer income of £5,200

Looking at the table above: the value of VWRP to match the income in the table would need to be £450,000 plus a cash buffer. GL with that.

Whilst all weeks are good weeks for a dividend re-investment plan, some weeks are better than others.

PEYS Partner Group leaves the watchlist.

NESF current yield 18% but will fall after the next dividend is paid to around 9%.

Mr. Market is providing some great yields for dividend re-investment, GL with you choices.

The SNOWBALL will have 11k to re-invest next week.

The four Trusts that I am interested in are

CTY,MRCH,TMPL,SUPR

Unless there is a surprise takeover announcement and that’s a slim chance and

I will only be willing to buy an opening position in two of the Trusts, sometimes the hardest part of investing is doing nothing.

If MRCH trades down to its recent low the yield will be a tad over 5%, which would be of interest for a pair trade to balance out one of the higher yielder renewables.

Will it go lower and therefore a better yield ? A little while before its xd date so there is no real hurry to buy apart from FOMO on the yield, remember it will be a buy and hold forever.

The large majority of non-Saba shareholders have shown by their votes in previous general meetings of the Company that they have no wish to be in a Saba controlled vehicle, and the Board understands from discussion with shareholders to date that many would like to remain invested in the Company’s current mandate, or, if not, in another suitable investment company. In particular, given the very strong long-term performance of Herald, which has delivered a 2,904% NAV total return since inception, many shareholders have significant capital gains on their holdings. The Board is conscious that should the Company be forced to proceed with the Backstop Tender Offer, in the absence of an alternative, such shareholders will be faced with a choice of realising these gains in the Backstop Tender Offer, which would crystallise an unwanted tax event, or keeping their investment in what will likely become a Saba managed and controlled vehicle.

Herald haven’t paid a dividend for many a year. To hold the share long term was an act of faith, which ultimately made a large return. Whilst always easier in hindsight, buy the dips.

The highest ‘secure’ yields in the market currently are renewables, remembering no yield is ever totally secure.

The SNOWBALL would like to add some direct investment into quoted shares, if Mr. Market co-operates.

There Is No De-Escalation

Mar 25, 2026

Eugenio Catone

Summary

• Current market optimism over U.S./Iran de-escalation is likely misplaced, as both sides’ demands remain irreconcilable and military escalation continues.
• Despite President Trump’s optimistic statements, Iran and the U.S. appear far from agreement, with each demanding terms the other cannot accept.
• I remain bullish on oil and the U.S. dollar and short-term bearish on gold and global equities, given persistent geopolitical risks and ongoing troop deployments.
• Historical analogs suggest the conflict’s market impact is far from over, with oil and equities yet to reflect full downside risk.

The market wants to follow President Trump

Markets desperately would like to believe that the U.S./Israel–Iran conflict is about to end anytime soon, and President Trump’s recent statements fueled the optimism.

They’re talking to us, and they’re talking sense. It all starts with, they cannot have a nuclear weapon. They want to make a deal so badly, you have no idea how badly they want to make it. We’ve won this war.

In addition, the U.S. sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war. President Trump also claimed that Iran sent him a present “worth a tremendous amount of money” related to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. We don’t know what kind of present we are talking about, but above all, the controversial fact is that we don’t know who the president is dealing with. In fact, there is no mention of any Iranian official dealing with peace talks. As of now, from Iranian officials, we have just heard words that are far from reassuring:

Has the level of your inner struggle reached ‌the ⁠stage of you negotiating with yourself? You will see neither your investments in the region nor the former prices of energy and oil again, until you understand that stability in the region is guaranteed by the powerful hand of our armed forces.

Ebrahim Zolfaghari, spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbiya ​Central Headquarters.

One of the two leaders is definitely lying, but as of now, the market has decided to support President Trump’s vision. In fact, even though Iran denies peace talks with the U.S., the market wanted to believe that we are close to the end of the conflict. While I am writing, stock market futures are up more than 1%, oil is declining by 5% (both WTI (CL1:COM) and Brent (CO1:COM)), and gold (XAUUSD:CUR) is rebounding by 2% as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) weakens.

I don’t want to ruin the party, but I am rather confident that this market enthusiasm is just short-lived. The reason why I believe we are going to test new lows is that the two parties are too far apart to even think about reaching an agreement. Here is what I am talking about.

An agreement is still a long way off

Firstly, Israeli officials are claiming that they need several more weeks to complete all the war goals in Iran. So, if Israel continues to bomb, I don’t think it is reasonable to expect a ceasefire anytime soon. Regarding the U.S.–Iran agreement, the evidence shows us that they are asking for totally different conditions. This is what the US asks, according to WSJ:

• Dismantle the three main nuclear sites and end the uranium enrichment process permanently.
• Suspend the ballistic missiles program.
• Reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

If Iran follows these points, then it will be lifted from nuclear-related sanctions, and the domestic nuclear program will be assisted constantly by the U.S. In other words, what President Trump is asking is an unconditional surrender. Without ballistic missiles, Iran will not even be able to defend itself from future attacks, and it could no longer block the Strait to counterattack. At this point, you might think, if they end up reaching an agreement, why should Iran care about future attacks? Because both the U.S. and Israel have already attacked Iran twice during the negotiating talks.

Iran sees negotiations as a pretext for the U.S. to buy time and prepare for the next massive attack, resulting in a further escalation. Will this time be the same as in the past? Well, in my opinion, the probabilities are pretty high. While President Trump claims a potential agreement is close, the Pentagon has just sent 3,000 82nd Airborne Soldiers, and they are expected to reach the Middle East in the coming hours. In this conflict, weekends usually coincided with periods of escalation, and I am concerned about the next one. The recent market rebound might be completely wiped out in just one day following a potential escalation over the weekend. Signals are there.

Finally, to show you how distant the parties are, here is what Iran asks to end the war, according to WSJ:

• No more U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Basically, the U.S. should no longer have any influence in that region.
• Pay for all the damages done to Iran and lift all the sanctions.
• Israel must stop bombing Lebanon.
• No more wars in the region.
• The Strait of Hormuz must always be under Iranian control. In fact, Iran wants to charge ships up to $2 million if they want to cross this route.

As you can see, totally different peace conditions than the ones proposed by the U.S. I want to be optimistic, but recent news is really not helping. Iran has probably understood that it is more powerful than it thought by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. An important point that we should all consider is that Iran is not asking for simple peace conditions that would revert to the pre-war situation. It is not just about receiving the money to rebuild damaged infrastructures; it is about having total military and commercial control over the Middle East. They want Israel to stop any war, they oppose any sanctions, and they want the exclusive control of the Strait of Hormuz: each ship must pay a toll whenever it crosses.

So, if you are betting on a market recovery due to the end of the war, consider that both parties are asking for conditions that are almost impossible to agree on. In my opinion, this war can end only when we have a clear winner, and the loser must accept an unconditional surrender. As of now, we don’t have a clear winner.

Final thoughts

In my opinion, investors shouldn’t downplay this conflict. The market still believes that the U.S. can easily win this war or end it whenever it wants, but the evidence shows otherwise. Both parties are quite distant, and the U.S. is sending thousands more troops to the Middle East. As long as I don’t see words of peace from Israeli/Iranian leaders, the escalation continues. Therefore, I am still bullish on oil and the U.S. dollar and short-term bearish on gold and global stock markets.

Now, a question arises: how do investors know when the escalation has reached its peak? Most people believe that it depends on oil prices, but I have a different opinion. The last phase of the escalation might be reached once the Gulf countries’ desalination plans are attacked. At that point, water would be worth more than oil.

These countries can’t survive without desalination plants, and Iran threatened to attack them if its energy infrastructures are hit once again. If this happens, I believe the market will start acting in panic mode, regardless of President Trump’s statements regarding peace. This weekend is very important to understand where this war is heading, as the Pentagon sent many more troops to the Middle East.

I think there won’t be any de-escalation anytime soon, and the similar historical events support my disbelief.

None of these events ended in a couple of weeks, and I don’t believe the recent oil crisis is less important than the Iraqi invasion or the Russo-Ukrainian war. The median oil spike during these kinds of events was +169%; now we didn’t get further than ~70% (~35% after the recent drop). In addition, the S&P 500 (SP500) peak to trough has always been at least -17%; now it has declined by just ~5%: we are likely not even halfway through.