IF GCP stays in business in it’s current form and the dividend remains the same, the picture would be
You would be earning, for ease of comparison ten percent on your seed capital and let’s say 7% on the dividends re-invested, income of £900 plus £600 a yield of 16% after ten years. Anyone lucky enough to have longer to invest the amount of income growth accelerates.
You would have earned income as you re-invested but for this comparison we will use it as a contingency.
Whilst you have little control of what the final value might be but with some care and intention you should be able to achieve the income figure.
To address concerns around overcompensation and ensure a fairer inflation adjustment mechanism for the RO, the UK government, the Scottish Government, and the Northern Ireland Executive are considering two options for transitioning from the Retail Price Index (RPI) to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Both options aim to deliver a more proportionate approach to inflation indexation, reduce costs to consumers, and align with broader government and regulatory policy.
Option 1: Immediate Switch to CPI Indexation
This option would involve a simple switch in the the price index used to adjust the RO buy-out price from the RPI to the CPI. Subject to legislative schedules, the UK government, the Scottish Government, and the Northern Ireland Executive would look to implement ahead of
Changes to inflation indexation in the Renewables Obligation scheme the next annual adjustment scheduled in March 2026 which would see the RO buy-out price increased in line with CPI. This approach would ensure generators continue to receive a stable and predictable return that maintains its value, whilst making savings in the energy system.
Option 2: Temporary Freeze and Gradual Realignment with CPI This alternative would involve freezing the RO buy-out price at the 2025/26 level (£67.06 per ROC), taking effect from April 2026 (subject to legislative schedules). The government would construct a ‘shadow’ price schedule for the RO buy-out price from 2002, annually adjusted using CPI instead of RPI. No further inflation-linked increases would be applied until the cumulative effect of CPI-based inflation on that shadow price matches the current RPI-adjusted buy-out price. At this point of realignment, annual indexation would resume using CPI.
This option goes further than Option 1 and would not only prevent further overcompensation in future but gradually realign scheme costs after presumed historical overinflation caused by RPI’s tendency to overstate inflation. It could stabilise scheme costs in the short term and transition to a more sustainable inflation measure over time. This would bring with it greater long-term savings for consumers, as scheme costs would be held steady until CPI and RPI inflation realign. We estimate that in scheme compliance year 2026/27 this could save consumers around £300m, rising to an estimated saving of around £820m in 2031/32. The UK government, the Scottish Government, and the Northern Ireland Executive are seeking views on which of these proposals presents the best alternative to the current methodology of RPI-indexation of the RO scheme.
We are particularly mindful that any change needs to be balanced against the broader impacts on renewables investment in the UK, which is essential to protect consumers against volatile fossil fuel prices. This is particularly pertinent in a period where the sector is focused on delivering the UK government’s Clean Power 2030 mission.
Dividends can be more reliable than share prices as they’re driven by the companies performance itself and not by the whim of investors.
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As a pair trade I’ve bought 2k of Temple Bar IT TMPL for the Snowball. The position will be treated as a quasi tracker and may have to be held for several years to print a profit. IF TMPL continues to go up, I’ll most probably sell the position unless I had bought some more shares and then I would just take out the profit and re-invest into a higher yielder. That’s the plan anyway.
The Board of Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust plc is pleased to declare an interim dividend in respect of the period from 1 July 2025 to 30 September 2025 of 1.54 pence per Ordinary Share.
Payable on 28 November 2025 to shareholders on the register as at 14 November 2025 (the “Q3 2025 Dividend”). The ex-dividend date will be 13 November 2025.
The Q3 2025 declared payment is in line with the Company’s dividend target for the financial year from 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2025 of 6.17 pence per Ordinary Share*.
A portion of the Company’s dividend is designated as an interest distribution for UK tax purposes. The interest streaming percentage for the Q3 2025 Dividend is 59.3%.
Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust PLC, the diversified renewables infrastructure company, announces that its unaudited Net Asset Value (“NAV”) as at 30 September 2025, on a cum-income basis, was £523.4 million or 98.46 pence per Ordinary Share (30 June 2025: £540.4 million or 99.46 pence per Ordinary Share).
Pence per Ordinary Share*
£m
Unaudited NAV as at 30 June 2025
99.46
540.4
Power prices and green certificates
(1.42)
(7.7)
Macroeconomic assumptions
0.65
3.5
Share buybacks
0.64
(8.2)
Q2 2025 interim dividend
(1.52)
(8.3)
Other movements
0.66
3.6
Unaudited NAV as at 30 September 2025
98.46
523.4
*Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding
Power prices and green certificates
Net movements in power prices and green certificates reduced NAV by £7.7 million over the quarter.
· The reduction reflects a recalibration of green certificate assumptions to adopt a more conservative external long-term forecast curve which is closely aligned with recent market trends. This led to a reduction in NAV of £12.9 million.
· Short-term and medium- to long-term power price forecasts increased slightly across ORIT’s core markets, partially offsetting the overall valuation reduction with a positive impact of £5.2 million.
ORIT’s portfolio continues to benefit from a high level of contracted revenue. As at 30 September 2025, 86% of the Company’s forecast revenue over the next 24 months was fixed or contracted, up from 85% at the end of June 2025. This strong degree of revenue visibility continues to provide robust protection against any short-term market volatility.
Macroeconomic assumptions
Macroeconomic updates had a positive impact on valuations during the quarter.
· Short-term UK inflation forecasts increased marginally, supporting inflation-linked revenue across the portfolio.
· Sterling weakened against the euro, generating a gross valuation gain of £7.3 million before currency hedging. After accounting for the Company’s FX hedges, the net impact of foreign exchange movements was a gain of £1.7 million.
Overall, the combined impact of these macroeconomic factors resulted in a net valuation increase of £3.5 million, equivalent to 0.65 pence per Ordinary Share.
Share buybacks
During Q3 2025, ORIT repurchased 11.8 million shares for approximately £8.2 million, at an average price of 69.4 pence per Ordinary Share. As at 30 September 2025, the Company had deployed £23.6 million of its £30 million buyback programme.
Following these repurchases, the total number of voting rights in the Company stood at 543,370,568. The reduction in shares in issue was accretive to NAV per share, resulting in an uplift of 0.64 pence in the quarter and 1.8 pence cumulatively since the programme began in June 2024.
The Company’s recently launched ‘ORIT 2030‘ strategy sets a renewed focus on long-term shareholder value creation, prioritising capital deployment into construction and development-stage projects which are expected to deliver higher returns and sustainable NAV growth. While buybacks remain an available tool, future capital allocation will be more strongly weighted towards investments that enhance scale, resilience, and dividend sustainability.
Other movements
An increase of £3.6 million or 0.66 pence per Ordinary Share was recorded from other valuation movements.
This increase reflects a £14.0 million uplift relating to the expected return on the assets, driven by the net present value of future cash flows being brought forward from 30 June 2025 to 30 September 2025. However, this gain was largely offset by lower-than-expected cash generation, principally due to low wind speeds, adjustments to future Capex and operational assumptions for some sites, and fund-level expenses, mainly related to the Company’s operating and transaction costs (including RCF interest).
Gearing
As at 30 September 2025, ORIT had total gearing (total debt drawn as a percentage of Gross Asset Value (“GAV”¹) of 47.8%, up slightly from 46.5% as at 30 June 2025. This temporary increase reflects the continued execution of the Company’s share buyback programme. ORIT remains on track to reduce total gearing to below 40% by the end of 2025, supported by scheduled debt amortisation of project-level term loans and active portfolio management through the ongoing asset recycling programme.
Notes
1 “Gross Asset Value” means the aggregate of (i) the fair value of the Company’s underlying investments (whether or not subsidiaries), valued on an unlevered basis, (ii) the relevant assets and liabilities of the Company (including cash) valued at fair value (other than third party borrowings) to the extent not included in (i) or (ii) above.
Factsheet
The Company’s Q3 2025 factsheet has been published today and is available to download at:
