Passive Income Live

Investment Trust Dividends

Page 54 of 392

General trading comment.

BRWM is a share I have traded but not in the Snowball also not recently so I missed the latest out performance. You can’t own all the shares.

In general you want to buy and hold above the cloud.

In the cloud watch as the share could go up or down.

Beneath the cloud the share is raining on your parade and you should consider selling and wait to buy back.

As you can see from the chart, you have to kiss a few frogs before it turns into your prince/princess.

If you bought as part of a dividend re-investment plan not only have you earned dividends which could have been re-invested back into BRWM, you could also then have re-invested the dividends back into your Snowball as the price rose and the yield fell, you would also have all the outperformance.

Whilst nothing works all the time with charting, the obvious is, if you buy a share paying a dividend just in case your analysis is wrong, and buy and hold for the long term, the odds are on your side.

You would have achieved the holy grail of investing, where you can take out your stake, re-invest it in another share and continue to receive income on a share that costs you nothing, zero zilch.

If you bought after the covid crash around 250p the dividend was 22p, a yield just under 9%.

The current dividend is 23p, so you would still receive the buying yield but the current yield is 2.5% so the incentive would be to sell some and invest the money back into a higher yielder.

Congrats if you owned the share.

Back to the future


Trust Intelligence from Kepler Partners

Strategy

All the things that outperformed Nvidia in 2025

We look for lessons in a list of the most successful investment trusts of last year.

Thomas McMahon Updated 07 Jan 2026

Disclaimer

This is not substantive investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. This material should be considered as general market commentary.

Without looking, what would be your best guess for the returns of the Latin American index in 2025? Well, as of 19/12/2025, it was up 43.6% in sterling terms. Nvidia, on the other hand, was up around half this, at 26.4%. Great returns for the year, and well ahead of the 10.4% the S&P 500 delivered, but UK investors aren’t benchmarked to the S&P. In fact, lots of investment trusts did significantly better than the world’s largest graphics card creator in 2025, which we think has some lessons for 2026.

Monotonous monoculture

Nvidia has dominated investment discourse over 2025. The most popular retail buys and sells tracked by our investment writing team show that it has dominated trades as well. Across four of the largest retail platforms it was the most bought stock in five of the first 11 months of 2025, and in the top three most bought in nine of those months. The chart below shows some signs of a wobble in conviction in the three months following Liberation Day, but it was back at the top again by the end of the year. To interpret the chart below, note that a lower number means it is higher up the list of most bought stocks.

NVIDIA ON RETAIL PLATFORMS

Source: Hargreaves Lansdown, AJ Bell, Bestinvest and interactive investor

Any parent will be well aware that the American dominance of our culture is only growing. We think the US-centric nature of financial media and social media in general has contributed to Nvidia staying central to the conversation – in dollar terms it has returned around 33%, and, of course, outperformed the US investor’s benchmark, the S&P 500. But under the radar, lots of more prosaic investments have delivered much better returns

The growth themes that outperformed

By our count, 65 investment trusts outperformed an investment in Nvidia in 2025, and ten Morningstar sector averages did. The top performer was Golden Prospect Precious Metals (GPM), which delivered a stunning 147.9% share price return (to 19/12/2025). Gold the metal had a good year, and the miners finally caught up. The performance of gold miners also drove the generalist mining trusts: CQS Natural Resources Growth & Income (CYN) made 89.9% and BlackRock World Mining (BRWM) 73.9%. Gold miners entered the year looking cheap and unloved, not having responded to gold’s strength in 2024. In fact, gold mining indices underperformed the metal in 2024, and investors who stuck with that trade rather than investing in thematically related equities, which had lagged, would have lost out.

Copper prices were also strong over 2025, and this contributed to good returns for the mining trusts. Copper benefits from demand for AI data centres and the expansion of the grid necessary to power them. Copper miners supported the returns of BlackRock Latin American (BRLA), up 52.9%, with the strength of demand for materials boosting domestic economies in its region, as well as Fidelity Emerging Markets (FEML) with the latter delivering a share price total return of 49.3%. FEML also had some very successful investments in technology stocks connected to the AI trade. This is another theme to come out of the table: investing in AI-related assets further down the chain than Nvidia’s GPUs. Rotating out of 2024’s leading stocks in this theme into related names yet to keep up would have been a winning strategy in 2025.

A recovery in China boosted a number of trusts to outperform Nvidia in 2025. Some optimism about the potential for AI may have contributed to good returns in the tech sector in the country, so there are some parallels with this trade. EVs and autonomous driving continues to deliver gains for related companies too, with there being some connections to AI. Dale Nicholls, manager of Fidelity China Special Situations (FCSS), has been taking some profits in these areas and rotating into consumer-related names, which he thinks could have catch-up potential. We think this might be a fruitful avenue to explore in 2026 in countries where AI-related earnings are strong enough to boost activity across the economy – Latin America could be one such area. FCSS made 42.3% over 2025, and Baillie Gifford China Growth (BGCG) 37%.

MINING AND EM OUTPERFORMERS

Association of Investment Companies (AIC) SectorSP Return (GBP, %)Latest Discount (Cum Fair, %)
Golden Prospect Precious MetalsCommodities & Natural Resources147.9-21.6
CQS Natural Resources G&ICommodities & Natural Resources89.9-2.2
BlackRock World Mining TrustCommodities & Natural Resources73.9-4.4
BlackRock Latin AmericanLatin America52.9-5.4
Fidelity Emerging MarketsGlobal Emerging Markets49.3-8.5
Templeton Emerging Mkts Invmt Tr TEMITGlobal Emerging Markets42.6-8.2
Fidelity China Special SituationsChina / Greater China42.3-9.8
Baillie Gifford China Growth TrustChina / Greater China37-9.1
BlackRock Energy and Resources IncCommodities & Natural Resources35.6-8.3
JPMorgan China Growth & IncomeChina / Greater China35.5-6.7
Pacific HorizonAsia Pacific32.4-8.2
Utilico Emerging MarketsGlobal Emerging Markets30.8-9.2
Invesco Asia Dragon TrustAsia Pacific Equity Income30.4-6.2
Barings Emerging EMEA OpportunitiesGlobal Emerging Markets30.3-12.7
JPMorgan Global Emerg Mkts IncGlobal Emerging Markets29.3-8.6
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Growth & IncGlobal Emerging Markets27.5-7.6
Baker Steel ResourcesCommodities & Natural Resources27.4-37.7
Aberdeen Asia FocusAsia Pacific Smaller Companies27.4-11.7
Nvidia Corp26.4

Source: Morningstar, 01/01/2025 – 19/12/2025
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

Biotech is another success story of 2025, and here there is no AI-related angle. It is historically a high-growth sector that does well in lower interest rate environments. We entered the year with political risk hanging over the sector, but this has lifted, and as rates have come down and, we suggest, as institutional investors look to rotate away from AI to other growth themes, biotech has come back into business. RTW Biotech Opportunities (RTW) +48.5%, International Biotechnology (IBT) +46.1%, and Biotech Growth (BIOG) +39.8%, have all prospered, with these returns coming since August. Macro factors have worked for biotech, but so did value: biotechnology was looking cheap entering the year, and despite the fundamentals of the sector – the science, the need for larger companies to buy out the owners of new drugs, the strength of balance sheets – looking good.

The value themes that outperformed

Perhaps so far the trusts and themes to have outperformed Nvidia are, if not expected, then unsurprising. Mining, data centres, the AI supply chain and biotech are all well-known growth themes. Spotting growth themes that had yet to respond to an improving backdrop would have seen investors fishing in these areas and benefitting. We think it is much more surprising that many of the plain vanilla UK investment trusts outperformed the sexiest stock in the world.

Temple Bar (TMPL) has delivered a share price total return of 44.8%, ahead of Fidelity Special Values (FSV) and its 35.5%. Lowland, Schroder Income Growth, Shires, Aberdeen Equity Income, CT UK High Income, City of London and JPM Claverhouse all outperformed Nvidia too. The income trusts outperformed the growth trusts and the large-cap trusts outperformed the small- and mid-caps. We think this is a good example of how recoveries in out-of-favour sectors tend to fly under the radar at first. There isn’t really anything driving the UK large-caps beyond them being extremely cheap and having incorporated a huge amount of negativity in the price. In that regard, and looking at how the AI trade broadened over 2025, we think UK small- and mid-caps are somewhere to watch. We think they could be to UK large-caps in 2026 what the miners were to gold or the data centre materials were to GPUs in 2025.

Most trusts in the Europe sectors underperformed Nvidia, but there were a couple of exceptions: JPMorgan European Growth & Income (JEGI), which was up 45.3%. JEGI aims to be a core holding, with a portfolio that mixes style exposure and delivers incremental outperformance of the benchmark. In 2025, it benefitted as its managers tilted the portfolio away from the global growth leaders and towards more domestically oriented stocks, which included building up its exposure to small- and mid-caps. JPMorgan European Discovery, run by the same house’s small-cap team also outperformed Nvidia with returns of 35.5%.

UK AND EUROPEAN OUTPERFORMERS

Association of Investment Companies (AIC) SectorSP Return (GBP, %)Latest Discount (Cum Fair, %)
Marwyn Value InvestorsUK Smaller Companies61.1-47.4
JPMorgan European Growth & IncomeEurope45.3-0.92
Temple BarUK Equity Income44.81.1
SVM UK EmergingUK Smaller Companies37-4
Fidelity Special ValuesUK All Companies35.5-0.8
JPMorgan European Discovery OrdEuropean Smaller Companies35.5-7.67
LowlandUK Equity Income33.9-9.4
Schroder Income GrowthUK Equity Income33-5.1
Shires IncomeUK Equity Income32.7-3.2
Aberdeen Equity Income TrustUK Equity Income31.51.3
CT UK High Income B ShareUK Equity Income29.3-0.5
City of LondonUK Equity Income28.61.9
JPMorgan ClaverhouseUK Equity Income28-5.2
CT UK High IncomeUK Equity Income26.73.2
Nvidia Corp26.4

Source: Morningstar, 01/01/2025 – 19/12/2025
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

Another area of value to have delivered greater share price returns than Nvidia is to be found in deeply discounted trusts in the alternative assets sectors. In some cases, share price returns reflect positive operational developments and improving sentiment. Seraphim Space (SSIT) more than doubled in share price terms as the discount narrowed form over 40% to c. 5%. A lot of these gains came in December after it was announced that its largest holding, ICEYE, had signed a £1.5bn contract with German defence manufacturer Rheinmetall. ICEYE made up 34.7% of SSIT’s NAV prior to the contract win, so there is scope for a significant uplift to the NAV. Molten Ventures (GROW) has seen a re-rating as asset sales have validated the NAV, with the write-up of largest holding Revolut ahead of an IPO acting as a reminder of the potential in venture capital. Gresham House Energy Storage’s (GRID) 71% returns reflect some positive NAV progression, new projects being funded and refinancing at lower rates, as well as the resumption of dividends for the first time since Q4 2023.

In GRID’s case, the takeover of Harmony Energy Income in the summer may have raised hopes of a similar value-unlocking resolution too. In some cases, it is takeovers that have delivered the returns, with Urban Logistics REIT and Warehouse REIT both bought out at large premiums to the share price, delivering returns of 56.7% and 48.1% to shareholders respectively. Harmony Energy Income itself delivered 41.5%. There are still plenty of exceptionally wide discounts in the alternative asset space and we think it likely that consolidation and takeovers will feature again next year. This is a hard theme for the individual investor to play, and perhaps one best left to the professionals who can invest at size and engage. MIGO Opportunities Trust (MIGO) is set up precisely to find opportunities to engage to unlock value in the alternatives space, and could be one to watch in 2026.

ALTERNATIVE ASSETS OUTPERFORMERS

Association of Investment Companies (AIC) SectorSP Return (GBP, %)Latest Discount (Cum Fair, %)
Seraphim Space Investment TrustGrowth Capital108.6-5.1
Gresham House Energy StorageRenewable Energy Infrastructure71.1-32.9
Urban Logistics REITProperty – UK Logistics56.7-0.4
Molten VenturesGrowth Capital55.4-31.5
Warehouse REITProperty – UK Logistics48.1-12.9
JPEL Private EquityPrivate Equity41.5-10.2
Harmony Energy Income TrustRenewable Energy Infrastructure41.5-0.3
Ecofin Global Utilities & InfraInfrastructure Securities41.2-6
Schroders Capital Global Innov TrustGrowth Capital40.9-27.6
Petershill PartnersGrowth Capital38.6-11.1
Downing Renewables & InfrastructureRenewable Energy Infrastructure37.9-9.5
Care REITProperty – UK Healthcare35.3-13.1
Premier Miton Glb Renewables TrustInfrastructure Securities35-0.1
VPC Specialty Lending InvestmentsDebt – Direct Lending34.5-45.9
NB Distressed Debt New GlbDebt – Loans & Bonds31.5-14.1
Chenavari Toro Income FundDebt – Structured Finance31.3-2.7
Volta FinanceDebt – Structured Finance30.3-7.1
Aquila Energy Efficiency TrustRenewable Energy Infrastructure29.1-43.7
Nvidia Corp26.4

Source: Morningstar, 01/01/2025 – 19/12/2025
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

Conclusion

Nvidia has dominated the headlines this year. It is the largest company in the world and intimately involved in the strategic rivalry between the US and China, but we think a common trend in markets is for an aura of ‘winning’ to hang around long after market leadership has passed on, and that is the case with Nvidia. Better returns have been delivered by trusts playing themes connected to the AI trade, further down the chain. Looking for areas connected to the leading themes that had lagged in price and valuation would have led investors there. Other areas that have been deeply depressed for years also outperformed, sometimes simply because all the negativity was in the price (the UK) and sometimes because there was also a new growth factor to consider (Europe and the stimulus of defence spending). In the alternative assets space, it was a mixture of both, with corporate activity or the expectation of it another key driver.

Looking ahead to 2026, we think countries and sectors that will benefit as AI spend flows through could do better than the expensive hardware manufacturers – consumer related areas in Latin America and China could be such areas. We think the most obvious deeply depressed area due a re-rating is the FTSE 250, one of history’s great growth markets, recently trading on lower valuations than large-caps; we expect UK mid- and small-caps to do well. Meanwhile, the alternative assets space looks like it should see another year of corporate activity, while falling interest rates should be a positive. Biotechs flourished in 2025 as interest rates fell and political worries lifted. We expect rates to continue to fall, providing an impetus to many growth sectors that have been left behind as Nvidia and some connected large-caps have risen to unattractive valuations.

What’s your plan ?

The current plan for the Snowball

The progress to date.

Dividends received.

2023 £9,422

2024 £10,796

2025 £11,914

2026 Target 10k

With an end destination of a yield of 18% and you retain all of your hard earned.

2026 Navel gazing

Sorry boys and girls it’s much more boring than Naval gazing.

The first attempt at forecasting the first quarter dividends

£3,607.00.

Do not scale to reach a year end figure as the figure includes some dividends harvested in January but it should mean the Snowball is on target to earn 10k plus in dividends, all to be re-invested.

Trusts. That you wish you had bought.

Last year will go down as a golden 12 months for investors in listed commodities funds, but shareholders in a variety of emerging market, technology and recovery plays also have cause to celebrate.

As precious metals and copper soared to all-time highs in 2025, data from the Association of Investment Companies (AIC) shows that the seven London-listed funds in the Commodities and Natural Resources sector generated an average 61.5% share price return in 2025.

That put the group way ahead of the next best investment trust sectors of China, Global Emerging Markets, Growth Capital and Technology which returned between 30% and 39% on average.

“It’s always good to understand which sectors and trusts have done best over the short term but investment is all about the long term. Building a diversified portfolio which meets your investment needs is the priority,” AIC communications director Annabel Brodie-Smith reminded investors.

Stellar year for Watson and Crayfourd

Top of the commodities sector was Golden Prospect Precious Metals (GPM), a £93m investment company run by Keith Watson and Robert Crayfourd at Manulife Investment Management. Its shares soared 165% on the back of a huge rebound in the shares of gold miners as bullion advanced 65% in response to the geopolitical and economic uncertainty exacerbated by US tariffs.

That made GPM easily the top-performing investment company in the UK last year (see table below), 38 percentage points ahead of the next best performer with a return that was 13 times greater than the average 12% made by investment trusts in 2025.

It was a stellar year for Watson and Crayfourd as the £129m CQS Natural Resources Growth & Income (CYN) they also run more than doubled. It achieved a 102% total return to shareholders from a broader portfolio of miners to rank it fourth in our list of top 10 risers. As a result, the company is broadly the same size it was before it had to buy back nearly 46% of its shares in July as part of a tender offer to get activist hedge fund Saba Capital off its back.

Shareholders in £1.6bn BlackRock World Mining (BRWM), the UK’s largest listed commodities fund, won’t be complaining either after it recorded an impressive 74% return. As with CYN, this was fuelled by gold and an intense demand for raw materials required to support the global roll-out of infrastructure, renewable energy and artificial intelligence.

Best performers

Investment companiesTotal shareholder return %Net asset value (NAV) total return %Premium (- discount) %
Golden Prospect Precious Metals165165-18
DP Aircraft I127NA-30
Seraphim Space 12127-0.4
CQS Natural Resources Growth & Income102912
BlackRock World Mining 7474-6
Gresham House Energy Storage726-32
Marwyn Value Investors6337-47
Molten Ventures587**-30
Fidelity Emerging Markets5651-8
RTW Biotech Opportunities5542-16

Source: Association of Investment Companies and Winterflood. ** Gross portfolio return 12 months to 30 September.

Emerging recoveries

A recovery in China’s stock market and a dollar deliberately weakened by President Trump’s trade policy swung momentum back towards emerging markets. Fidelity Emerging Markets (FEML) led the rebound in its sector with a 56% shareholder return. Most of this was generated by the 51% underlying growth in its investments, with a slight narrowing in the gap between its share price and net asset value (NAV) also helping. The shares ended the year at an 8% discount below NAV.

Elsewhere, a range of funds made decisive bids for the sunny uplands after a tough few years.

Second-placed DP Aircraft 1 (DPA) flew 127% higher after re-leasing its two Boeing 787-8 planes from Thai Airways to LOT Polish Airlines. However, that marks only a partial recovery for the specialist dollar-based investment company. At 14 cents today, the shares are a fifth of their value before the 2020 Covid pandemic sent the aviation sector into a tailspin.

Seraphim Space (SSITprovides a better view in third place. The world’s first listed space technology fund made 121% for shareholders last year. With the shares yesterday rallying with other defence-related stocks following the US overthrow of Venezuela’s president at the weekend, SSIT has now surpassed the early peak it reached shortly after launch in 2021 with shares up 37% since flotation.

It’s a similar story for RTW Biotech Opportunities (RTWwhich is closing in on its 2021 peak after advancing 55% last year as shares in drug developers rallied from record lows in response to falling interest rates and an upsurge in bids and takeovers.

Gresham House Energy Storage (GRIDhas more to do to recoup shareholder losses from 2023 and 2024 but the 72% share price recovery last year represents a good start for the battery fund’s three-year turnaround plan.

Congrats if you had one or two of the above.

Trust Laggards 2025

Worst performers

Investment companiesTotal shareholder return %Net asset value (NAV) total return %Premium (- discount) %
Lindsell Train-14-12-21
Augmentum Fintech-15-3-43
JPMorgan US Smaller Companies-15-11-7
Greencoat UK Wind-160-30
Bluefield Solar Income-19-3-40
Ecofin US Renewables Infra ($)-34-9-50
Hydrogen Capital Growth-37-60-60
ICG-Longbow Senior Secured UK Property Debt -39-37-37-29
Aquila Euro Renewables (€)-41-27-38
Digital 9 Infrastructure-69-5-82

Source: Association of Investment Companies and Winterflood.

Turning to the 10 worst-performing investment companies last year, it’s worth noting that the bottom five are all in managed wind-down. Tired of poor, or disappointing, returns exacerbated by wide discounts, shareholders in DGI9, AERI, LBOW, HGEN and RNEW have voted for their assets to be sold and the companies liquidated.

The pressure on renewables funds is evident with half of our list of big fallers investing in forms of clean energy. High-yielding Bluefield Solar Income (BSIF) slid 19% last year and looks likely to exit the stock market with a strategic review launched in November after shareholders objected to a proposed merger with its fund manager.

Will big fallers turn the tide?

I wonder if the top three in our list of fallers could do better this year? Lindsell Train (LTI), the top decliner, fell 14% with the dividend included. Even including pay-outs, the shares are down 43% over five years which reflects the trust’s exposure to fund manager Nick Train’s previously successful, but out-of-favour investment approach, and its large stake in the fund firm he runs with Michael Lindsell that has suffered outflows and falls in assets under management. But is the doom and gloom priced in with the shares stuck on 21% discount? Certainly the stock has significantly derated from the 100% premium it stood on in 2021.

Poor sentiment continues to undermine Augmentum Fintech (AUGMwith the shares off 15% last year despite Winterflood data showing its portfolio of unquoted financial services companies proved stable, if unexciting, in 2025. Having avoided the big write-downs that have afflicted some other early-stage investors, AUGM has delivered a 34% underlying return in the past five years and yet its shares have dropped by a third to languish on a 43% discount. That valuation gap looks unsustainable. Something could happen to close it. Perhaps it’s already happening as the shares have rallied since early December when the company said £125m of its investments were effectively valued at nil by its share price.

Lastly, will JPMorgan US Smaller Companies (JUSCcatch a break in 2026 after its 15% decline last year? Donald Trump’s re-election in late 2024 prompted a value-style rally that left this former top-performing small-cap growth investor out in the cold, and badly lagging the market’s rebound since “Liberation Day” last April. With the company actively buying back shares, the discount has stayed relatively narrow at 7% so there isn’t a valuation gap to exploit as such, just a hunch that the market could swing back in its direction.

Across the pond


Contrarian Outlook



My Plan for 7.9% Dividends From the AI Boom (Hint: It Began in 1854)

by Michael Foster, Investment Strategist

The run that AI poster child NVIDIA (NVDA) has been on these last few years is truly incredible. That’s not news, of course. But what matters now is whether investors are overpaying for that growth – in both NVIDIA and AI as a whole.

NVIDIA’s Monstrous Run 
Once a chipmaker known for appealing mainly to gamers, NVIDIA started to climb in 2023, thanks to a new technology only a few people really understood at the time: generative AI.

Then, as AI spread in 2024, hopes – and NVIDIA’s stock – soared. That was followed by more fears of a bubble in AI. As with NVIDIA’s share price, a chart is the best way to do these worries justice:

The Bubble in Worries About an AI Bubble 
There’s so much discussion of an AI bubble now that we seem to be in a bubble of talking about bubbles! That’s why some advisors are saying that this AI bubble talk is a distraction. I’d agree, as we can’t even be sure this is a bubble – and I’d argue it’s not.

To see why I’m saying this, we need to look no further than NVIDIA shares. Consider this table of their performance in the last four years.


Here I’ve broken out NVDA’s per-year returns since 2022, a year in which the stock plunged alongside all of tech. Note how its biggest year was in 2023, and that its gains have been moderating since?

If this were really a bubble, you’d expect yearly gains to keep building and building until they hit a wall. That’s not the case here. In fact, I’d argue that we’re seeing a massively undervalued company becoming a fairly valued one.

To really unpack this, let’s look at how much investors are paying for NVIDIA’s earnings. We’ll do that by looking at the stock’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio (in purple below). As you can see, it roughly matches that of “boring” big-box retailer Costco (COST)!

Is NVIDIA Really Worth as Much as …Costco? 
I think you’ll agree that Costco, with its membership-driven revenue, is a pretty reliable revenue generator. This shows that investors are starting to see NVIDIA the same way.

Note also that NVIDIA’s P/E ratio trailed that of Costco for most of 2025.

In other words, this is not a bubbly valuation. And in fact, none of the “Magnificent 7” stocks sport higher valuations than Costco right now. That is, except for Tesla (TSLA), which in many ways lives in its own little world.

To be sure, some aspects of the AI space do look bubbly, like the 700 seed-stage rounds that attracted $10 million or more in 2025. This shows that venture capitalists are indeed making some outrageous bets here.

But that’s not a sign of a bubble. In fact, I heard the same worries about VC over investment in the early 2010s (if you don’t remember Juicero, it was a great example of VC silliness), when I worked on Wall Street. The market powered higher anyway.

But what about all the infrastructure investments we hear about, especially around data centers? One report says we saw about a 30% growth rate in data-center spending in the middle of 2025, to about $40 billion on an annualized basis, and the Fed estimates about $41.2 billion. But both sources also cite rapid growth in building back in 2023 and 2024, so the 2025 rate actually moderated compared to 2024.

If we look at total private construction of non-residential properties, as provided by the Census Bureau, a similar story appears.

 Source: US Census Bureau, CEF Insider
Here we can see spending growth on data-center construction (gray line) far outpacing all non residential spending (orange line) and overall private-sector spending (blue) in late 2023 and 2024. That was actually the case in the late 2010s, as well.

In fact, data-center spending looks like it’s simply going back to where it was pre-pandemic. It’s also worth noting that the growth rate has been slowing since peaking in late 2023, much like NVIDIA’s stock-price growth has been moderating since then, too. In other words, this is clearly not a bubble – if anything, the bubbly numbers looked most alarming in late 2023.

How I’m Playing the AI “Non-Bubble”

So what’s the best approach for us here?

For one, the data says this market is not acting irrationally. On the contrary, valuations suggest a mature market, and our best play is to remain fully invested and diversified.

Most people would go with an index fund like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in a situation like this. But we want dividends, and SPY’s sad 1% yield just won’t cut it.

In this market, while we wait for AI to continue its spread through the US economy, getting a big slice of our return in cash dividends is key. That’s why we prefer a closed-end fund (CEF) like the Adams Diversified Equity Fund (ADX), a long-time holding of my CEF Insider service.

ADX is a proven long-term wealth generator, both in the form of dividends and capital gains. Since we bought the 7.9%-yielding fund in July 2017, it’s returned 243% in gains and dividends, as of this writing, soundly beating the S&P 500.

“Dividend-Powered” ADX Beats the Market in the Long Term … 
That’s thanks to management’s stock-picking skills (ADX holds NVIDIA, along with many other top S&P 500 stocks). Their acumen stems from ADX’s long institutional memory: The fund traces its roots back to 1854 – yes, the mid-nineteenth century.

And then there’s that income stream, responsible for a big slice of the fund’s total return: ADX’s 7.9% yield is roughly seven times that of the typical S&P 500 stock (note that ADX’s payouts do flex somewhat, based on its portfolio performance).

The odd thing about CEFs like ADX is that when investors judge their performance, they tend to only look at price returns, not total returns (including dividends), as we discussed last week. And on a price basis, ADX returned 15.5% in 2025, just less than the 16.4% of an S&P 500 index fund. But add reinvested dividends and you’ll see that ADX (in purple below) easily beat the market.

… And the Short Term, Too 
CEFs like ADX are nicely set to keep outrunning a rising stock market. Anyone who’s letting bubble fears keep them out of the market (and this great fund) are missing out – on both the income and the capital gains side.

The Snowball

The portfolio is called the Snowball because as a snowball rolls down a hill it gathers more and more snow and grows bigger until it stops rolling.

Or your Snowball, which should be different to the blog portfolio, the yield will grow as you buy more shares with the earned dividends, until you want to spend the same dividends, either when you retire or if you need to boost your income.

2026 Income £943.00

« Older posts Newer posts »

© 2026 Passive Income Live

Theme by Anders NorenUp ↑