Dividends really do matter over the long term, even in North America
Investors in America have swarmed into growth stocks with rampant earnings growth and fat margins, ignoring boring old dividends. But those humble dividend cheques matter over the long term, even in North America, the home of the Magnificent Seven.

By
David Stevenson

A few weeks ago, the social network tech leviathan Meta announced that it would pay its first dividend, at a $0.50 quarterly rate, with a yield of 0.51% (using the closing price on the day). That annual dividend will cost the firm $4.4 billion. The payout in absolute terms makes it the 31st biggest dividend payer in the S&P 500 and should increase the S&P 500 yield by 0.74%, to 1.4609% from 1.4501% pa.

For many investors, this seemed a surprise at the time – a growth stock paying a dividend? Surely the best thing to do is to keep reinvesting back in the business. But Meta’s boss Mark Zuckerberg has realised once essential bit of investment logic. At some point, your potential growth rate slows down and at that point, you need to reward patient investors for providing you with the cash to expand. Cue a dividend. It’s also very normal for US corporations to pay a dividend. According to analysts at S&P Dow Jones, the total dividend payout for all stocks in the benchmark S&P 500 index hit – by February 1, 2024 – $600 billion. Ten years ago, that total payout amounted to just $330 billion. Those increasing dividend payouts remind us that investors in equities receive a return from many different sources. The dividend cheque is a direct return of course, and that payout can increase over time as the corporation grows its profits. Many investors then choose to reinvest that dividend back into those shares. In addition, shares can also be re-rated i.e. the multiple investors are willing to pay for those shares changes over time. In the last few decades, that multiple for US stocks has increased.

Analysts look at all these moving parts (dividends, dividend payout growth, dividend reinvestment and multiple expansion) through the lens of what’s called total shareholder returns. Analysts at French investment bank SocGen have looked at different countries in different decades and broken down how that total shareholder return has grown. Looking at returns from 1970 onwards they’ve found that in the UK nearly all the returns from investing in equities through to today have come from the dividend and the subsequent growth of that dividend payout over time. That’s true also for equities in France, Australia and Germany. Looking globally, they found that since 1970 the annualised real return from investing in equities was just over 5% pa of which the real price return (multiples expansion) was just over 2% implying that the rest of the total return comprised dividends, dividend payout growth and dividend reinvestment.

In the US by contrast, multiple expansion was a much more significant element although of course US stocks do pay a dividend – according to academics at Yale, the median dividend yield for the entire period since the end of WW2 was 2.90%. Another study this time by analysts at S&P Dow Jones looked at returns since 1926 and found dividends have contributed approximately 32% of total return for the S&P 500, while capital appreciation (multiple expansion) has contributed 68%. It’s important to say that the contribution of dividends to total returns varies, even in the US. From 1930–2022, dividend income’s contribution to the total return of the S&P 500 Index averaged 41% but peaked at above 50% in the 1940s and 1970s and dipped below 30% in the 1950s, 1990s and 2010s.

And of course, the compounding effect of receiving a dividend cheque, the business increasing the dividend payout every year and the investor subsequently reinvesting the dividend cheque in the stock is huge. According to S&P Dow Jones, if you’d have started in 1930 with $1 invested in US equities, excluding dividends, the return of the S&P 500 on Jan. 1, 1930, would have grown to $214 by the end of July 2023. During the same period, the return of the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested would have been $7,219. Another study this time by US fund management group Hartford noted if we start at 1960, 69% of the total return of the S&P 500 Index can be attributed to reinvested dividends and the power of compounding.

So, dividends matter, even in the US. And what’s true for the US is also true for its North American peer, Canada. According to Canadian bank RBC, over the past 30 years, dividends have accounted for 30% of the total return from the Canadian equity market, although that fell to 31% over the last 30 years. Over the past 46 years, dividends have contributed an average of 3.2% per year to the S&P/TSX Composite Total Return. Crucially the Canadian equity market now offers a much higher dividend yield over U.S. equities – the yield advantage offered by Canadian equities is currently at one of its widest levels in over 20 years, running at above 3%. That gap is why UK funds such as the Middlefield Canadian Income Trust – an investment trust that focuses on Canadian and to a lesser extent US dividend-paying equities – have proved popular. The Middlefield fund is currently yielding 5.3% on a discount of 15%.

There’s a catch though. While dividends do matter in North America – both in the US and Canada – that doesn’t mean that just blindly investing in the highest-yielding stocks is the best strategy. Numerous studies have shown that investors should avoid the highest-yielding stocks and stick with dividend-paying businesses with more modest yields, strong balance sheets and growth potential. US fund management firm Hartford quotes a study by Wellington Management from a few years back which involved dividing dividend-paying stocks into quintiles by their level of dividend payouts. The first quintile (i.e., top 20%) comprised the highest dividend payers, while the fifth quintile (i.e., bottom 20%) comprised the lowest dividend payers. According to Hartford, “the second-quintile stocks outperformed the S&P 500 Index eight out of the 10 time periods (1930 to 2022), while first- and third-quintile stocks tied for second, beating the Index 67% of the time. Fourth- and fifth-quintile stocks lagged by a significant margin.”

So, although dividends are a useful component of total returns, how you invest to get those dividend cheques matters hugely. Don’t be fooled by high-yielding value traps, think about how the dividend can grow sustainably over time. Study after study has shown that corporations that consistently grow their dividends have historically exhibited strong fundamentals, solid business plans, and a deep commitment to their shareholders. And arguably now is a great time to think about growing the dividend in the US (and Canada). According to equity analysts at French investment bank SocGen, the average dividend payout ratio over the past 96 years has been 56.3%. As of December 31, 2022, the payout ratio stood at just 37.1%, implying plenty of potential for other large corporates to follow the example set by Meta. North America is full of businesses like Meta that are cutting back on their debt, reining in their share buyback programmes and rolling in cash. Maybe the time for the humble dividend cheque might finally have come, even for the go-go momentum-driven markets of North America.