Lindsell Train Investment Trust – “Market mispricing AI risk”

• 07 May 2026
• QuotedData

“Market mispricing AI risk”

During periods of global market uncertainty, the companies held by Lindsell Train Investment Trust (LTI) and its manager, Lindsell Train Limited (LTL), have tended to perform well as investors seek durable and resilient cash flows. Whilst some holdings – particularly those in the consumer staple sector – have proven defensive amid volatility linked to the Iran war, growing fears around the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on software and data businesses has hit LTI and LTL hard.

This has been particularly acute at portfolio holding RELX. LTL argues that the market’s assessment is wrong. In sectors such as legal and financial, the cost of error is extremely high, and regulatory barriers make the datasets valuable and essential for the successful application of AI tools. Reflecting this, LTI used market weakness to initiate a position in US credit scoring giant FICO (which was already held in LTL’s Global strategy) in February.

Whilst funds under management at LTL have continued to fall, the company has launched a new $200m strategy focused on international equities, seeded by its substantial cash pile and a longstanding client.

Maximise returns over the long-term

LTI aims to maximise total returns over the long term, while preserving shareholders’ capital. It invests in a concentrated portfolio of global equities that it has identified as market-leading and that benefit from high returns on equity. It also invests in a range of Lindsell Train-managed funds and the unlisted security of its investment manager, Lindsell Train Limited.

Year ended	Share price total return (%)	NAV total return (%)	MSCI World Index TR (%)
30/04/2022	(11.5)	(4.2)	6.4
30/04/2023	(10.9)	10.1	3.1
30/04/2024	(19.5)	1.8	18.8
30/04/2025	10.7	12.2	5.1
30/04/2026	(23.6)	(17.7)	27.0

Source: Bloomberg, Marten & Co

Fund profile

Concentrated portfolio of 13 global equity stocks plus Lindsell Train funds

Lindsell Train Investment Trust (LTI) aims to deliver long-term total returns while preserving the real value of capital. It invests in a concentrated portfolio of 13 global “heritage” companies, alongside selected Lindsell Train funds and a stake in its manager, Lindsell Train Limited (LTL). The LTL management fee for LT managed funds and other funds that LTL manages are rebated back to LTI, so as to avoid double charging of fees.

As of March 2026, global equities made up 62.4% of NAV, with look-through exposure to 49 holdings. The trust is benchmarked against the MSCI World Index (in sterling) but is managed independently, with an active share close to 100%. LTI was launched in 2001 and is listed on the premium segment of the main market of the London Stock Exchange. LTI’s board of directors is the company’s AIFM and receives no remuneration for doing so.

Investment approach

LTL focuses on holding a small number of high-conviction, high-quality companies for the long term. It believes concentration can reduce risk more effectively than broad diversification. These businesses typically have durable competitive advantages and long histories (average age of LTI’s direct equity holdings of around 147 years).

Symbiotic relationship with LTL

LTI has a symbiotic relationship with LTL, helping seed new funds and benefitting from their growth. Its initial £66,000 investment in LTL grew significantly and stood at £28.2m (as at the end of March 2026), peaking at 48% of NAV in 2021 before declining to 19.8% by March 2026 due to weaker performance and reduced assets under management.

Market backdrop

War in Iran has heightened global geopolitical uncertainty

Global market uncertainty has heightened with the war in Iran intensifying geopolitical tension and upending a global economic recovery. Growth expectations have been lowered on the back of the energy price shock and re-accelerating inflation, with central banks being forced to shelve rate cutting plans as a higher-for-longer interest rate backdrop emerges.

At the same time, investors are also evaluating how artificial intelligence (AI) could reshape entire industries and sectors, distinguishing between likely beneficiaries and those at risk of disruption.

Markets have become highly event-driven and volatile, with concerns about inflation, oil prices, interest rates, and geopolitics all affecting sentiment. The impact of the uncertainty caused by both unstable geopolitics and the threat posed by AI has been great on LTI and LTL’s portfolios. We look at both here.

Geopolitical tension

Defensive stocks back in focus

The war in Iran and wider instability in the Middle East has brought defensive stocks back into focus. While energy, defence/aerospace and selective commodity stocks have made substantial gains, other safe haven sectors, including banking, have also benefitted. LTL’s consumer staples exposure has likewise proven relatively resilient in recent months. Within LTI’s portfolio, beauty and personal care giant Unilever was up double-digits in the year before it was reported that it was selling its food business in March (which we detail on page 9). Meanwhile, snacks behemoth Mondelez and soft drinks manufacturer AG Barr were both up in the weeks following the outbreak of war.

All four boast long-term track records of durable and growing revenues and should continue to reliably compound for years and decades to come. In the last period of significant market volatility – at the start of 2025 when tariff uncertainty and the DeepSeek large language model (LLM) launched – LTI and LTL’s portfolio held up relatively well, while tech-dominated indices, including the S&P 500 and NASDAQ faltered. This is illustrated in Figure 1, which shows LTI’s NAV return relative to the MSCI World Index.

Figure 1: LTI NAV total return relative to the MSCI World Index¹

The benefits of its defensive positioning were not quite as pronounced in the aftermath of the start of the war in Iran this year, coming at a time when a number of LTL’s data businesses were caught up in the widespread software sell-off.

Software sell-off

Data businesses suffered large sell-off

Following the launch by Anthropic of industry specific plugins for Claude Cowork in January – targeting particular verticals such as legal and finance – a period of indiscriminate selling of data and digital platform businesses ensued. The concern is that cheap AI tools may soon commoditise data provision altogether or at least impact future growth prospects.

A number of LTI and LTL’s holdings were caught up in this, not least London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) and RELX.

LTL believes that the market has misjudged both companies, underestimating the long-term value of the datasets on which the new AI models depend. In sectors such as legal, risk, financial, and medical, the cost of error is extremely high, while much of the underlying data is protected by clear physical and regulatory barriers, meaning a significant proportion remains entirely unavailable to large language models (LLMs). As a result, trusted, accurate, reference-grade data should remain valuable even as AI tools become more widely adopted.

Figure 2: RELX (GBP)

RELX, which provides services to the global scientific, legal and insurance industries, already offers similar AI-enabled workflow tools. LTL argues that, whilst new AI applications are being developed, the value is less likely to accrue to the models themselves but more to the owners of the datasets upon which they rely. Both RELX and LSEG possess clear data moats. RELX, for example, has amassed over 100 billion legal documents and grows this data daily – the vast majority of which contain proprietary content. This legal data is rarely more than 1%-2% of a law firm’s cost base, LTL estimates. However, it is critical to their function and does not seem an obvious target for cost savings.

LTL believes that investors have overly discounted the long-term earnings potential of these and other data businesses, creating a buying opportunity. As such, LTI has recently initiated a position in US credit-scoring giant FICO (which we detail on page 10).

Investment process

Investment universe of 150 companies

LTL operates within a small universe of potential investments, typically no more than 150 companies, due to its strict focus on heritage businesses with predictable earnings (supported by pricing power and/or intellectual property), low capital intensity and sustainably high returns on capital. As a result, LTI has maintained a highly concentrated portfolio since its launch in 2001, averaging around 15 holdings (currently 13).

Most qualifying companies tend to fall into a limited number of broad sectors:

• Consumer branded goods;
• Internet, media, software; and
• Financials and networks.

Bottom-up approach without reference to benchmark

The portfolio is constructed on a purely “bottom-up” basis, with no reference to benchmarks. Each potential investment undergoes a rigorous due diligence process (sometimes lasting several years) including meetings with management and detailed industry analysis.

Valuation is assessed using multiple methods. Whilst LTL does not rely on traditionally constructed discounted cash flow (DCF) models, its approach shares many of its core principles, particularly in focusing on the long-term sustainability of returns of a company. Companies identified as offering the best value are selected for inclusion in the portfolio.

ESG integration

Signatory of UN Principles for Responsible Investment

LTI’s manager is a signatory to the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment, the UK Stewardship Code, and the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative. It actively engages with portfolio companies on ESG issues, including climate change, and measures portfolio-level carbon emissions, footprint (tCO₂e/$m invested), and intensity (tCO₂e/$m sales) to assess exposure to climate-related risks.

LTL believes that companies with strong ESG standards are likely to be more durable and deliver superior long-term returns. Accordingly, ESG analysis is embedded in the investment process and covers environmental factors (including climate change), social, governance (including remuneration and capital allocation), as well as cyber resilience, responsible data use, human rights, anti-corruption, and reputational risks.

ESG factors influence portfolio decisions

Where ESG factors are expected to materially affect long-term prospects, they are incorporated into valuation assumptions, particularly long-term growth rates, and influence portfolio decisions, including whether to initiate, hold, or exit positions.

Consistent with its philosophy, LTL avoids:

capital-intensive sectors such as energy, commodities, and mining, including companies involved in coal, oil, or gas extraction; and

industries considered socially harmful or exposed to regulatory or litigation risk, such as tobacco, gambling, and arms manufacturing.

Active engagement with company management on ESG and stewardship issues is a core part of the strategy. Whilst generally supportive of management, LTL will seek to influence decisions where it disagrees with company actions.

Investment policy and restrictions

LTI can invest globally across a broad range of financial assets, including equities (listed and unlisted), bonds, funds and cash, with no sector or geographic constraints. Individual holdings are limited to 15% of gross assets. It may also invest up to 25% in LTL-managed funds (subject to board approval) and may retain holdings in LTL to benefit from its long-term growth.

The company does not invest for control purposes and will not allocate more than 15% of gross assets to other closed-ended investment funds.

Exits

Low single-digit portfolio turnover rate

LTL maintains a low single-digit portfolio turnover rate, with LTI’s turnover even lower. Investments are typically held for the long term, reflecting its conviction in the value of owning high-quality businesses over extended periods.

Positions are reduced or exited only for compelling reasons, such as a share price exceeding intrinsic value, or erosion of competitive advantages.

Long-term holding avoids transaction fees

This long-term approach minimises transaction costs, which the manager views as a drag on capital, and requires patience and discipline to look beyond short-term market noise. Exit decisions may also be influenced by the availability of alternative opportunities with stronger upside potential, with the manager typically identifying two or three vetted candidates at any given time.

Asset allocation

Figure 3: Breakdown of LTI’s portfolio at 31 March 2026

Figure 4: LTI portfolio by location of underlying revenue at 30 Sept 2025¹

At 31 March 2026, more than 60% of LTI’s portfolio value was invested in global equities, with LTL making up almost 20%. Over a third of underlying portfolio revenue originated from the US (on a look-through basis including positions in LTL), while Europe accounted for a quarter of revenues and the UK just over a fifth.

Figure 5: LTI holdings at 31 March 2026

Stock/holding	Sector	As at 31/03/26 (%)	As at 30/09/25 (%)	Change (%)
Lindsell Train Limited (LTL)	Unlisted security	19.8	24.4	(4.6)
London Stock Exchange Group	Financials	14.4	11.3	3.1
Lindsell Train North American Equity Fund	LTL managed fund	13.5	12.2	1.3
Nintendo	Communication services	11.1	14.0	(2.9)
RELX	Industrials	6.4	7.4	(1.0)
A.G. Barr	Consumer staples	4.7	4.0	0.7
Unilever	Consumer staples	4.6	5.0	(0.4)
Diageo	Consumer staples	4.2	4.4	(0.2)
Thermo Fisher Scientific	Healthcare	3.2	2.5	0.7
Mondelez International	Consumer staples	3.0	3.3	(0.3)
Universal Music Group	Communication services	2.6	3.1	(0.5)
Heineken	Consumer staples	2.4	2.1	0.3
PayPal	Financials	2.2	2.6	(0.4)
Finsbury Growth & Income Trust Plc	Financials	2.1	2.1	0.0
Laurent-Perrier	Consumer staples	2.0	1.7	0.3
FICO	Financials	1.7	–	1.7
Cash & equivalent	–	2.1	0.2	1.9

Source: Lindsell Train Investment Trust, Marten & Co

Universal Music Group (UMG)

Figure 6: UMG (EUR)

We explained LTL’s investment rationale for UMG, which it bought into at the end of 2023, in detail in our initiation note and the manager says that this has not changed. Its belief that the Euronext Amsterdam-listed company was vastly undervalued has been proven by a £48bn bid for the company by Pershing Square Capital Management. Announced earlier this month, the deal values UMG’s shares at €25 compared to its previous closing price of €17.05.

If it goes ahead, shareholders in UMG will receive €9.4bn in cash and 0.77 new UMG shares as part of the deal, which would see UMG merge with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, the special purpose vehicle established four years ago to make a large acquisition, and list on the New York stock exchange. Under the transaction, 17% of UMG shares will be bought back and cancelled while preserving the company’s investment grade balance sheet, and a new dividend policy may also be adopted.

UMG’s shares have been depressed since listing in 2021, with concerns over French conglomerate Bolloré Group’s 18% stake, the postponement of UMG’s US listing, under-utilisation of its balance sheet, and the threat of AI deepfakes on music industry revenues weighing on performance.

The LTL team believes that that whilst AI can generate huge volumes of music-like content, it does not change the value of real, established, and in-demand catalogues. UMG’s ownership of major music rights, where it controls roughly a third of the world’s recorded music (ahead of the other two major players Sony and Warner), puts it in a strong position to push for better pricing from streaming platforms such as Spotify, it adds.

The payout model currently used by the platforms – based on a simple pro-rata share of listening – is expected to improve and evolve allowing for minimum payments or fixed-value arrangements tied to the worth of catalogues. This would give UMG leverage to force platforms to absorb higher content costs or raise their own subscription prices. Changes would likely take time to flow through because UMG needs to align terms across multiple streaming partners, the manager says, but the direction of travel is positive.

Unilever

Figure 7: Unilever (GBP)

FTSE 100 conglomerate Unilever has been a long-term holding for LTL and a consistent presence in LTI’s portfolio. Last month, the group announced it had reached a deal to sell its food business to spice maker McCormick, creating a $66bn company with $20bn of annual revenues.

As part of the cash-and-stock transaction, Unilever shareholders will own 65% of the combined group, with McCormick owning the remaining 35%. Unilever will also receive $15.7bn of cash from McCormick under the deal terms. It has been structured as a so-called Reverse Morris Trust, which allows the parent company (Unilever) to minimise its tax liabilities on the disposal if it retains a majority stake in the divested enterprise.

Unilever says that the deal, which is expected to complete by mid-2027 subject to McCormick shareholder approval, will transform the company from a multi-category conglomerate into a more focused, pureplay beauty and personal care company. The division accounts for a large portion of group revenues and is seen as faster-growing sectors.

Unilever has been pivoting away from food over the past decade to focus on beauty and wellbeing categories – last year spinning-off its Magnum ice cream holding into an independent entity.

Shareholders reacted negatively towards the McCormick deal, with its share price falling heavily since first being reported in March. LTI had reduced its position in Unilever earlier in the year, before the price weakened. The manager believes that the greater attraction of Unilever’s household and personal care portfolio has put selling pressure on the remains of Unilever’s food business. It thinks that it is this, rather than the merits of the deal, that has negatively impacted Unilever’s share price.

FICO

Figure 8: FICO (USD)

Partly funded by the exit of Unilever’s Magnum ice cream business noted above, LTI initiated a 2% holding in US-listed credit scoring giant FICO in February. It has been a constituent of LTL’s global equity portfolio since 2022, and the manager took advantage of share price weakness linked to the perceived threat from AI to add to its position.

FICO has two core businesses: the credit scores segment and the software arm. LTL notes that much of FICO’s growth has come from pricing power, with significant further room to raise prices after decades of undercharging. It believes that the scores business still has a large growth runway ahead of it, with opportunities to increase pricing and tweak its charging model, as well as capturing more of the value chain. Meanwhile, the software business’s shift to a new cloud-based platform has presented it with greater opportunities to cross-sell its risk and fraud prevention services.

LTL believes the AI disruption fears are misplaced in FICO’s case due to the sensitivity and protection given to the underlying bureau data and the regulatory burden around the scores themselves.

Diageo

Figure 9: Diageo (GBP)

A major recent development at drinks giant Diageo was the announcement of the halving of its dividend. New chief executive Dave Lewis said the company had taken the decision to reduce the pay-out in order to strengthen its balance sheet and drive long-term growth.

Lewis had been appointed earlier this year to turnaround the ailing company, which owns some of the best-selling premium spirit brands globally but has suffered a collapse in its share price since its peak in 2021. The dollar-based company declared an interim dividend of 20 cents per share in half-year results, down from 40.5 cents. Going forward, it said it would target paying 30-50% of earnings with a minimum annual dividend of 50 cents.

LTL says that it supports the dividend cut, providing it helps protect the balance sheet and avoids more damaging actions like selling valuable assets. Whilst acknowledging the disappointment, it believes that the core long-term strengths of the business remain intact: strong brands, durable market positions, and growth potential in markets such as India.

Diageo’s share price weakness has been exacerbated recently, with the company being uniquely hit by Trump’s tariffs, as a significant portion of its products are imported into the US from Mexico and Canada. Another concern for shareholders stems from the fact that people are drinking less. The manager says that the data points to a more nuanced story, however.