Month: September 2026

For any new readers, there are only 3 rules.

Rule 1.

Rule 2.

Rule 3.

Once your share has earned some dividends and you re-invest those dividends back into your snowball, even if you have to sell at a loss, you will in time earn back those losses from the re-invested dividends. If you re-invest your dividends back into the share in your snowball, any loss will sit in your account forever.

AGNC vs NLY vs MFA — Mortgage REIT Comparison

Takeaway: AGNC and NLY are the two large‑cap agency mortgage REITs with similar risk profiles (pure agency MBS, high leverage, rate‑sensitive), while MFA is a smaller, credit‑focused hybrid REIT with materially lower leverage, deeper discounts to book, and the highest headline yield. AGNC/NLY = stability; MFA = value + credit risk.

Below is a clean, structured, side‑by‑side comparison using the latest 2026 data from the search results. (All figures sourced from the pages above: AGNC , NLY, MFA .)

📊 AGNC vs NLY vs MFA — Mortgage REIT Comparison

	AGNCAgency MBS	NLYAgency MBS	MFACredit-focused hybrid
Valuation
Price/Book	1.19	1.15	0.50
Market Cap	$12.9B	$17.4B	$0.89B
Leverage
Debt/Equity	7.17	7.38	6.57
Net Debt/Equity	5.64	7.35	6.49
Profitability
ROE	19.8%	19.6%	8.2%
ROA	2.02%	2.33%	1.17%
Net Margin	94%	91%	49%
Dividend
Dividend Yield	13.24%	12.95%	16.36%
Payout Ratio	76.5%	75.8%	143%
Risk Metrics
Beta	1.30	1.24	1.50
Price Volatility (52w)	+11.7%	+9.9%	-9.6%
Business Mix
Portfolio Type	Pure Agency	Pure Agency	Credit + Non‑QM + MSR
Book Value Trend	Stable	Stable	Volatile

Sources:

🧭 Interpretation — What the numbers actually mean

1. AGNC — High‑yield, high‑leverage agency specialist

• Pure agency MBS → no credit risk, but extreme rate sensitivity.
• ROE ~20% is strong for an agency REIT.
• Dividend yield ~13% with payout ratio ~76% → reasonably covered.
• Trades near book (1.19× PB), signalling investor confidence.
• Best fit: income + relative stability within the mortgage REIT universe.

2. NLY — The benchmark agency REIT

• Largest, most diversified funding base.
• ROE ~19.6% and ROA highest of the three.
• Dividend yield ~13% with similar payout ratio to AGNC.
• PB 1.15× → slightly cheaper than AGNC.
• Best fit: income + scale + liquidity.

3. MFA — Deep‑value credit REIT with highest yield

• PB = 0.50× → trades at a huge discount to book.
• Yield = 16.36%, but payout ratio = 143% → not fully covered.
• Credit‑heavy portfolio (non‑QM, whole loans, MSRs) → more credit risk, less rate sensitivity.
• ROE only 8.2% → materially lower profitability.
• Best fit: maximum yield + value, but with higher risk.

🧩 Which fits your strategy?

If your priority is maximum income

→ MFA

• Highest yield (16%+)
• Deep discount to book
• But dividend coverage is weak and credit risk is meaningful.

If your priority is income with stability

→ NLY

• Largest balance sheet
• Slightly lower volatility than AGNC
• Strong ROE and well‑covered dividend.

If your priority is high yield + strong dividend coverage

→ AGNC

• Yield ~13%
• Payout ratio ~76% (best coverage of the three)
• Very clean agency book.

🔍 Non‑obvious insight

MFA’s huge discount (0.50× book) is not simply market pessimism — it reflects the fact that credit REIT book values are harder to mark and more volatile. AGNC/NLY trade near book because agency MBS valuations are transparent and liquid. So MFA’s discount is structural, not just an opportunity.

AI generated so as always DYOR before investing your hard earned.

The SNOWBALL is going to build a position in AGNC. If/when interest rates rise the price may fall and the yield rises, which would be a positive for the SNOWBALL.

Thursday 3 September

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