CHAIRMAN’S STATEMENT
Introduction
City of London achieved a 6.5% net asset value total return during the six months to 31 December 2023 against a backdrop of falling inflation and market expectations that interest rates have peaked.
The Markets
Although economic growth slowed, the main developed countries appear to have avoided a significant downturn, with employment remaining at high levels. Inflation fell by more than expected, especially towards the end of the period, with investors anticipating cuts to interest rates by central banks globally during 2024. The 10-year gilt yield, which was 4.4% at the beginning of July, ended 2023 at 3.5%.
The UK equity market returned 5.2%, as measured by the FTSE All-Share Index, with medium-sized and small companies slightly outperforming larger peers. The best performing sector was real estate investment trusts, reflecting the downward move in gilt yields, followed by technology, in line with trends overseas. Some more defensive sectors, such as food & beverage and health care, were notable underperformers.
Net Asset Value Total Return
City of London’s net asset value total return was 6.5% – higher than the FTSE All-Share Index (5.2%) and the AIC UK Equity Income sector average (5.0%), but behind the IA UK Equity Income OEIC sector average (6.9%). The negative impact of the fall in gilt yields on the fair value of the Company’s fixed interest debt detracted performance by 34 basis points. It should be noted, however, that the £30 million 2.67% 2046 and £50 million 2.94% 2049 secured notes, both issued in recent years, provide borrowings at fixed low interest rates for investment in equities by City of London over the next quarter of a century.
Stock and sector selection contributed by 171 bps. The underweight positions in pharmaceuticals and AstraZeneca were respectively the biggest sector and stock contributors. The second biggest sector impact arose from being overweight in real estate investment trusts, with Land Securities a notable stock contributor. The biggest detracting sector was food producers, with Nestlé a detractor over the six months. The second biggest detracting sector was aerospace and defence, where the Company missed out on the rise in Rolls Royce (which was not held) but benefited from its position in BAE Systems. Other notable stock contributors were 3i, whose main asset is its shareholding in Action, a fast-growing discount retailer in Europe, and Round Hill Music Royalties Fund, which was taken over. The biggest detracting stock was St James’s Place, which announced changes in the structure of its customer fees.
Earnings and Dividends
Earnings per share rose marginally compared with the same six-month period last year, from 8.79p to 8.80p. Special dividends, received and accounted as income, were down from £2.4 million to £0.9 million. The trend in ordinary dividends received was similar to City of London’s last financial year, with cuts from mining companies being offset by increases from banks and oil companies.
City of London has declared two interim dividends to date of 5.05p each in respect of this financial year. The Company’s diverse portfolio, strong cash flow and revenue reserve give the Board confidence that, in line with its objective to provide long-term income and capital growth, it will be able to increase the total annual dividend for the 58th consecutive year. The quarterly dividend rate will be reviewed by the Board before the third interim dividend is declared in April 2024.
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