Investment Trust Dividends

Share pick 2024

Alan Ray

Last year I picked a European-focussed investment trust, European Opportunities (EOT), for a couple of reasons. First, that sentiment towards European equities was very negative, as evidenced by large-scale selling of European equity funds, and second, because EOT, and many of its peers, invests in European companies that are world leaders and therefore not entirely dependent on the performance of specific economies to do well. Whilst some European companies did indeed do very well, notably Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk, European economies didn’t exactly sparkle, and neither did investors collectively start putting more money into European equities. But EOT did well in NAV terms and its discount narrowed towards the end of the year as it held a tender offer, boosting the share price performance.

Despite this good performance, not all the stars I thought might align actually did, and investor sentiment toward European equities remains, at best, muted. One could do worse than sticking with EOT in 2024, but I think as the first signs of interest rates plateauing along with inflation, there’s a case for taking a bit more risk and looking to European smaller companies. Traditionally, these conditions are the launchpad for smaller companies to outperform, and as European Smaller Companies Trust (ESCT)’s manager Ollie Becket notes, European smaller companies are also at very low valuations compared to history, which again shows that sentiment is probably as weak as it’s ever been.

ESCT is currently geared c. 15%, the highest in its peer group, which goes to my point about taking a little more risk, and it trades on a relatively wide c. 13% discount at the time of writing. Whilst there is no formal discount limit, the board has stepped in with some buybacks this year when the discount was around 15%. Picking a single trust to perform for a period of just one year is, of course, really just a bit of fun, but I think on a three-to-five-year view ESCT has the potential to generate significant returns.

Alan Ray

alan@keplerpartners.com

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