Quote 9
The experts do not have dependable ways of selecting and concentrating on the most promising companies in the most promising industries.
Graham reserved particular scorn for ‘expert’ market forecasts, though he understood investors are addicted to them:
Quote 10
For years, the financial services have been making stock-market forecasts without anyone taking this activity very seriously. Like everyone else in the field, they are sometimes right and sometimes wrong. Wherever possible, they hedge their opinions to avoid the risk of being proved completely wrong. (There is a well-developed art of Delphic phrasing that adjusts itself successfully to whatever the future brings.) In our view—perhaps a prejudiced one—this segment of their work has no real significance except for the light it throws on human nature in the securities markets. Nearly everyone interested in common stocks wants to be told by someone else what he thinks the market is going to do. The demand being there, it must be supplied.
The reason Graham felt market predictions were valueless hasn’t changed. It’s because you can’t expect exceptional results when everyone else has the same information:
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